West Kaua’i

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 74 near the shore to around 64 above 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 87 to 92 near the shore to around 78 above 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 75 near the shore to around 65 above 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Kaua’i

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows 71 to 77. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 71 to 77. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kaua’i Mountains

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 69 in the valleys to around 61 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny. Windy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83 in the valleys to around 74 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday Night: Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 70 in the valleys to around 62 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

North Kaua’i

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 75. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 88. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 75. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Kaua’i

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 67 to 77. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 68 to 77. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy trades continue well into next week with limited showers directed windward and mauka during this time.

Discussion

Benign trade wind pattern through the forecast period as strong longwave ridging approaching 598dm at 500mb remains anchored along 170W longitude. This in turn favors expansive surface high pressure in maintenance of breezy trades through the middle of next week. An uptick in showers for windward and mauka zones is possible next week as moisture off the California coast becomes entrained in the trades, reaching the islands around Wednesday.
The tropics remain remain active with the primary focus at the moment being Tropical Storm Lowell. This system is forecast by NHC to become a hurricane this weekend. Even though it is already around 135W, or about 1500 miles SE of Hilo, weak steering winds delay any potential arrival to/around the Hawaiian islands to beyond the 7 day forecast period.

Aviation

For 00Z – Moderate trades regime continues. Mostly VFR through the TAF period with some MVFR conditions with passing heavier showers/lower CIGs, highest chances this afternoon and overnight. Expect low CIGs and SHRA over windward and mauka slopes most areas and reflected as VCSH most TAFs.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod low-level turb lee of terrain and may be needed for a few days.

Marine

High pressure located far north of the waters will remain nearly stationary through the forecast period maintaining moderate to locally strong trade winds. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island through Saturday night. SCA conditions look to persist through the beginning of next week.
Surf along south facing shores have peaked through the day just just below advisory levels today as the moderate medium to long period south swell will likely slowly start to decline through the night. Another south swell similar in size is expected during the middle of next week bringing surf back up to near High Surf Advisory level conditions.
Surf along east facing shores will remain choppy in response to the locally strong trade winds over and upstream of the islands. A small medium period east swell from Tropical Storm Iselle has filled in and will hold through Saturday. Another round of east to southeast swells are possible late next week but remains at high uncertainty due to the potential track and intensity of Tropical Storms in the east pacific.

Fire weather

Breezy trades continue well into next week as RH remains elevated courtesy of dewpoints hovering around 70 degrees. Rainfall will be limited and confined mainly to windward and mauka zones during this time. Today's inversion is observed around 8kft with only minor day to day fluctuations expected.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov