West Kaua’i

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 54 above 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 69 above 3000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 57 above 3000 feet. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Kaua’i

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 64. Light winds.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82. West winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 66. West winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaua’i Mountains

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 55 to 62 in the valleys to around 52 above 4000 feet. Light winds.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 80 in the valleys to around 63 above 4000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 57 to 65 in the valleys to around 54 above 4000 feet. Southwest winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

North Kaua’i

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 57 to 65. Light winds.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Haze in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 60 to 67. Southwest winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Kaua’i

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 57 to 67. Light winds.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 83. Southwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 58 to 69. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Clouds will be on the increase the next couple of days with scattered showers as winds come around to a southerly direction and direct higher moisture over the islands. The pattern will undergo a more windy and wet change this weekend as a front travels across the islands from the west. The associated upper low will dig down west of the island chain through the week and be the impetus to more frequent rain that may become locally heavy, strong winds and thunderstorms late Saturday through early next week.

Discussion

Issued at 355 PM HST Wed Feb 4 2026
It was one of those somewhat rare beautiful, mainly clear sky days across the majority of the islands this afternoon. The lone exception was Big Island where warmth-of-the-day cloud build up occurred along the slopes of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa. Early day land breezes have swung around to sea breezes with the overall background flow veering east southeast as surface ridging drifts overhead. Very comfortable humidity-wise as dew points range in the middle 50s to lower 60s. This post-frontal air mass will begin to modify tomorrow as moisture levels increase upon primarily southerly flow. An approaching, slowing cold front from the west will reach the western waters Friday into Saturday. This boundary will produce ever-strenghtening southwest winds over Oahu and Kauai. This front will also be a vehicle for deepening boundary layer humidity as downstream moisture begins to pool ahead of the front's wind shift.
The associated mid to upper level trough is progged to deepen west of the state over the weekend. Previous run-to-run consistency with the evolution of this trough into a broad cut- off low in its base west southwest of Niihau and Kauai by late weekend has increased confidence that there will be more statewide active weather from late Saturday through at least Monday. This scenario will stall or severely slow the progression of the synoptic scale lower level surface boundary. Backing high pressure from the west will tighten the lower to middle level pressure gradient between northwesterlies north of the front and weaker southeasterlies downstream of the front.
More rich moisture will be transported up just ahead of the frontal boundary that will be positioned somewhere over Maui County and Big Island by early Sunday. At the same time, the west trough will deepen and cool mid to upper levels significantly (2-4 deg C at 700 mb, low to mid negative teens at 500 mb). Stability and any warm nose inversion will erode and high moisture of greater than 90% will fill the column to jet level. Decreasing stability as cooler air advects in with high moisture content air pumping in from the south ahead of a stalled boundary on Sunday signals high rainfall and increasing chances for thunderstorms, especially over the windward zones of Maui County and Big Island. There are other factors, such as favorable jet stream dynamics and a high theta e gradient near Maui and Big Island Sunday that may be the smoke before the fire that the eastern end of the state could experience rounds of heavy, training rainfall along with scattered thunderstorms that may induce periodic flooding.
A weekend flooding situation could transition into more of a wind threat as strong trades bear down on the state from late Sunday through mid next week as building high pressure behind a weakened and northeast-exiting front creates a very tight gradient pressing down on Hawaii. Early week rain with strong northeast east winds shortly thereafter may be a recipe for more tree fall and vegetation damage that would likely result in widespread power outages.
Upper ridging expands in from the north northeast by late Wednesday. While NWP deterministic guidance maintains fresh to strong trades as the surface gradient remains very tight back to a strong surface high as it parades across the Central Pacific, precipitation will be trending down during mid to late week. Not totally dry though as frequent, albeit progressive shower activity, rides in within strong trade flow into next weekend.

Aviation

Issued at 355 AM HST Wed Feb 4 2026
Afternoon sea breezes will transition to light offshore land breezes tonight amidst mostly clear skies and scant shower activity. VFR areawide. Emerging SW flow becomes established during Thursday bringing lower VFR cigs and potentially a few passing/isolated leeward showers, most likely in the vicinity of Oahu.
No AIRMETs in effect.

Marine

Issued at 355 AM HST Wed Feb 4 2026
Light to moderate southeast to southerly winds are prevailing over the coastal waters this afternoon as high pressure remains over the region. Moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds are expected to return over the western end of the state on Thursday as the next cold front draws closer. Guidance shows this next front moving into the area late Friday through Saturday with strong to near gale force northeast winds filling in behind it late in the weekend through early next week. Ocean conditions will quickly respond and become rough due to a combination of winds and seas. In addition to the winds and seas, a wet pattern with locally heavy rainfall and potentially a few thunderstorms will accompany this front.
The extra-large northwest swell that has been impacting the islands over the past day or so is beginning to decline, but it is still producing warning-level surf along exposed north and west facing shores. Recent observations from nearshore buoys at Hanalei, Waimea, and Pauwela all show wave heights of around 13 to 15 feet, most of which is from the northwest swell energy with periods in the 13 to 15 second range. Given the latest observations and guidance, the High Surf Warning for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, north facing shores of Maui, and west facing shores of the Big Island has been extended through tonight. Surf heights are expected to lower below warning thresholds for impacted shores Thursday as the swell continues to decline. Heights will dip below advisory levels for a brief period Thursday night into Friday, then return to warning levels for exposed coasts Friday night into Saturday due to a fresh northwest swell arriving. The High Surf Advisory for north facing shores of the Big Island has also been extended through tonight, but will likely be dropped thereafter. In addition to the surf, seas greater than 10 feet will continue through tonight as well for waters exposed to the northwest swell. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.
Surf along east facing shores could quickly rise and become rough this weekend, with heights potentially nearing the warning level during the peak by Monday. Surf along south facing shores will remain small throughout the forecast period.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Thursday for Kauai North, Kauai Southwest, Kohala, Kona, Maui Central Valley North, Maui Windward West, Molokai North, Molokai West, Molokai Windward, Niihau, Oahu North Shore, Waianae Coast, Windward Haleakala.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Big Island East, Big Island North.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Kauai Channel, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Maui County Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Oahu Windward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov