West Kaua’i

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 75 near the shore to around 65 above 3000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny. Highs 87 to 93 near the shore to around 79 above 3000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 74 near the shore to around 64 above 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Kaua’i

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 72 to 78. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 71 to 77. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaua’i Mountains

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 70 in the valleys to around 62 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 84 in the valleys to around 69 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 69 in the valleys to around 62 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

North Kaua’i

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 76. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 89. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 75. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Kaua’i

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 68 to 78. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 67 to 77. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue through the forecast period as showers focus primarily windward and mauka.

Discussion

High pressure far north of the area will drive moderate to breezy trade winds through this weekend and into next week. A mid level ridge will keep a strong temperature inversion of around 5,000 ft to 6,000 ft in place, keeping showers on the lighter side. An area of drier air with lower dewpoints can also be seen on CIMSS MIMIC Layer Precipitable water just upstream to the east-northeast of the islands. This drier air will help lower the relative humidity values through the remainder of the week and lower the shower chances. Showers will still be possible for windward and mountain areas, although coverage should be fairly limited and intensity will be light. An enhanced but shallow moisture field associated with benign troughing from a long-since dissipated tropical system will be on the doorstep in about a week and may bring an uptick in showers for windward and mauka zones.
Looking into the long range forecast, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently tracking a few disturbances in the eastern and central Pacific that could develop in the next several days to a week. Global models and google deepmind indicate an active week next week for Tropical Cyclone Development. It is too early to know if Hawaii will be impacted but we will be monitoring the tropics for notable developments.

Aviation

Mostly VFR conditions across the state with pockets of MVFR conditions windward due to lower CIGs. Additionally, a few -SHRA are also possible on windward and mauka slopes. Wind wise, flow pattern is moderate trade regime.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod low-level turb lee of terrain and may be needed for a few days.

Marine

Moderate to locally strong trades will persists a broad high pressure remains far north of the state. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect over typically windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island.
Surf along south facing shores will remain below summer average through tonight as a small medium period south swell slowly fades and a small, long period south southwest swell fills in. A slightly larger, long period south swell will fill in Wednesday and peak Thursday into Friday. This swell could push surf towards advisory thresholds before slowly fading over the weekend.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy due to persistent trade wind swell.
Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny to flat.

Fire weather

Fire weather will be elevated but is expected to remain below critical thresholds through the week due to winds remaining below criteria. KBDI likewise remains a bit low due to recent rainfall. Day to day variability during the next week will be modest as the governing pattern remains rather stagnant.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov