West Kaua’i

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 60 above 3000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 72 above 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Night: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 60 above 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Kaua’i

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 68 to 73. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 84. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 68 to 73. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kaua’i Mountains

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 65 in the valleys to around 58 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to up to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 70 to 77 in the valleys to around 63 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 67 in the valleys to around 58 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

North Kaua’i

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 71. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 66 to 82. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows 61 to 71. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Kaua’i

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Trades will weaken slightly this evening before strengthening again Sunday afternoon. After that, we should see moderate breezy trades well into next week. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas, rarely reaching leeward sections as moisture is relatively low for the next week.

Discussion

Satellite and radar show scattered showers over windward and mauka areas, especially on Maui, this afternoon. These showers are forecast to continue overnight. Winds were still reaching wind advisory criteria as of 3 PM HST, but are expected to weaken to below criteria this evening. Therefore, the wind advisory will be allowed to expire on schedule at 6 PM HST.
Models remain consistent in showing an extended period of trades lasting for at least 7 days. Ridging aloft to our north will enhance surface ridging to our northeast through the middle of next week. After that, there may be a replacement of the ridge aloft after a brief period of weak troughing. But the surface ridge, and therefore the trade winds, are forecast to remain strong. Expect a continuation of breezy to occasionally strong trade winds, along with isolated to scattered showers, mainly windward and mauka, through Friday. PW values will hover around an inch over the next week.

Aviation

Breezy to locally windy trades will continue through Sunday and usher clouds and isolated to scattered showers into windward and mountain areas. Brief MVFR conditions will be possible as showers pass through. Otherwise, VFR conditions will generally prevail.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low-level turbulence over and downwind of terrain, and is expected to continue into at least Sunday.

Marine

Strong high pressure north of the Hawaiian Islands will maintain strong trade winds through the rest of the weekend. The high will begin a weakening trend tonight, then shift northeast of the state during the first half of the week. Strong trade winds will gradually trend down to moderate to locally strong speeds by Tuesday, then hold through the end of next week. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended through Sunday afternoon for all Hawaiian waters. It will likely need to be extended further for locally windier waters through the first half of the week.
Choppy and rough surf can be expected along east-facing shores through the rest of the weekend. Based on nearshore buoy observations from today, surf along east-facing shores is expected to remain just below advisory thresholds through the weekend. It will then trend down as trade wind speeds gradually ease locally and upstream.
A small, moderate period north-northwest swell will peak tonight, then gradually decline Sunday into Monday. This will provide a small boost in surf heights along north and west facing shores. A slightly larger northwest swell will fill in Tuesday and peak Wednesday, which could bring near to slightly above average summertime surf for north and west facing shores.
A small, long period south swell will peak this evening, resulting in surf at near or slightly above average. This swell will begin to fade on Sunday. Another similar south swell will slowly fill in Tuesday, peak Wednesday, then slowly fade during the second half of next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island North, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast, Kohala, Maui Central Valley North, Maui Central Valley South, Maui Leeward West, Maui Windward West, South Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters, Big Island Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Kauai Channel, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Maui County Leeward Waters, Maui County Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Oahu Windward Waters, Pailolo Channel.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov