West Kaua’i

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 62 above 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to around 75 above 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 60 above 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

South Kaua’i

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 72. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 77 to 86. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 71. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaua’i Mountains

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 69 in the valleys to around 60 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 73 to 79 in the valleys to around 65 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 68 in the valleys to around 58 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

North Kaua’i

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 73. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 69 to 84. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 61 to 73. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Kaua’i

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Trade winds will steadily strengthen through Thursday and a wind advisory has been issued for areas of Maui County and Big Island through Thursday night. Passing showers will continue to move in on breezy to windy trade winds through at least early next week. As usual, these showers will be most numerous during the nights and early morning hours across windward and mauka areas.

Discussion

Satellite shows partly to mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers mainly windward and mauka, with isolated showers over South Kona on Big Island. Winds have increased today, averaging 15 to 25 mph with gusts 30 to 40 mph in a few favored locations.
A drier air mass is moving in tonight, and the inversion will lower and strengthen. This will result in gusty winds over and lee side of terrain. Winds are expected to reach advisory thresholds tonight into Thursday for the windier areas around Maui County and the Big Island, where gusts of up to 50 mph will be possible. For Oahu, wind gusts should be slightly weaker but gusts of at least 40 mph should be expected for areas downwind of terrain by late Thursday. Oahu is not currently in the wind advisory as winds are expected to be below advisory thresholds.
For the weekend, windy conditions will likely continue through Saturday. Trade winds should weaken slightly Sunday, but breezy to occasionally strong trades will likely continue into early next week. Trade wind showers will continue to pass through from time to time and will mainly be focused over windward and mauka areas.

Aviation

Fresh to strong trades will increase tonight and will be locally windy through at least Thursday night as the atmosphere stabilizes. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration across windward portions of the Big Island, and as a diffuse band of moisture moves through tonight, AIRMET Sierra could be needed over windward slopes elsewhere. AIRMET Tango is in place for low level turbulence over and downwind of terrain. With winds building and stability increasing, this AIRMET will remain in place for at least the next couple of days.

Marine

The high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will strengthen over the next few days, allowing trade wind speeds to increase into the strong to gale range tonight through early Friday morning. A Gale Warning has been issued for the Alenuihaha and Pailolo Channels, and Maalaea Bay starting this evening and the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been expanded to all remaining island waters. Expect SCA to continue into the first half of next week.
Small, short- to medium-period north-northwest (330 degree) swell energy will decline through Thursday. The next small north- northwest (330 degree) swell will move into the Hawaii region on Saturday, increasing surf heights along north- and west-facing shores through the weekend.
A series of small, long-period south swells will support near- average surf along south-facing shores over the next several days. Meanwhile, strengthening trades will maintain elevated surf along east-facing shores into next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Big Island North, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast, Kahoolawe, Kohala, Lanai Leeward, Lanai Mauka, Lanai South, Lanai Windward, Maui Central Valley North, Maui Central Valley South, Maui Leeward West, Maui Windward West, Molokai Leeward South, Molokai North, Molokai Southeast, Molokai West, Molokai Windward, South Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters, Big Island Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Kauai Channel, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Maui County Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Oahu Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Alenuihaha Channel, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel.
Gale Warning until 6 AM HST Friday for Alenuihaha Channel, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov