West Kaua’i

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers until early morning. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 58 above 3000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny early in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 74 above 3000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers early in the evening. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 58 above 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Kaua’i

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers until early morning, then isolated showers late in the night. Lows 66 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 86. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early in the evening. Lows 66 to 71. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaua’i Mountains

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers until early morning, then partly cloudy with isolated showers late in the night. Lows 60 to 67 in the valleys to around 56 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 80 in the valleys to around 66 above 4000 feet. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 60 to 67 in the valleys to around 56 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Kaua’i

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers until early morning, then partly cloudy with isolated showers late in the night. Lows 62 to 70. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny early in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 75 to 82. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 62 to 70. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Kaua’i

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 72. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers early in the morning, then isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 75 to 84. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 62 to 72. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate trades hold through today. A sea breeze pattern then develops for the midweek period followed by returning light trades. Limited rainfall during this time.

Discussion

Ridging will weaken in response to a series of cold fronts passing well north of the state. This will lead to a gradual easing of the trade winds beginning Tuesday, with local land and sea breeze circulations becoming more dominant through midweek. From Tuesday through Thursday, a more humid air mass will settle over the islands, with dewpoints potentially climbing into the mid- to upper-60s. These dewpoints combined with the afternoon sea breezes will support localized afternoon cloud buildups and a few brief showers over interior and leeward areas, followed by clearing at night as land breezes develop.
By the latter part of the week into the weekend, moisture and rainfall chances may trend up. Global guidance indicates upper heights lowering as an upper-level disturbance approaches the region. In addition, a weak attendant frontal boundary may move into the area. However, there remains considerable spread among the model solutions regarding the timing and strength of these features, so confidence in the details remains limited at this time.

Aviation

Moderate trade winds will deliver showers over windward and mountain areas through this evening before weakening overnight. Light winds tomorrow will allow a land and sea breeze pattern to take place with possible afternoon showers over island interiors. Periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility are possible in showers, otherwise VFR is expected.
AIRMET Sierra is currently in effect for mountain obscuration over windward areas of Maui, but expect conditions to improve overnight. No other AIRMET's are in effect.

Marine

A trough entering the northwest waters on Tuesday will cause trade winds to weaken and veer southeasterly north of around 20N. Land and sea breezes will be possible as the ridge is weakened on Tuesday and Wednesday. Gentle to moderate trade winds are expected to redevelop for the latter half of the week as weak ridging to the north makes a recovery. High pressure builds into the northwest by the weekend.
A moderate northwest swell built to 5 ft at 13 seconds on offshore buoys today. This swell will pass through the islands, causing surf along north and west facing shores to build this evening and peak tonight into early Tuesday above seasonal averages. The swell will then slowly decline through Wednesday. A larger northwest swell arriving on Wednesday could produce surf near the High Surf Advisory level Thursday, then lower Friday into next weekend.
A south swell will gradually decrease tonight into Tuesday, with small pulses keeping surf from going flat for the latter half of the week.
Trade wind swell will remain below seasonal average for much of the week, keeping below average surf along east facing shores.&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES… None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov