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Weather RadarRegional forecast
Regional Kaua`i Weather Forecast March 18, 2026
West Kaua’i
Rest Of Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 57 above 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 70 above 3000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 60 above 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Kaua’i
Rest Of Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 67. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs 77 to 82. Northeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows around 69. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Kaua’i Mountains
Rest Of Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 59 to 65 in the valleys to around 56 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 73 to 79 in the valleys to around 64 above 4000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Haze. Lows 62 to 68 in the valleys to around 58 above 4000 feet. Light winds becoming south up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
North Kaua’i
Rest Of Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 60 to 68. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 73 to 82. South winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Haze. Lows 63 to 71. South winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
East Kaua’i
Rest Of Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 61 to 71. Northwest winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 81. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Haze. Lows 63 to 72. South winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Cloudy skies with generally light winds and periods of showers will persist through midweek. Although widespread heavy rain is not expected during this time, deep tropical moisture will remain in place, particularly over the eastern end of the state. Conditions are expected to deteriorate again by Friday as another upper-level disturbance and surface low approach from the west, bringing increasing chances for widespread rainfall and moderate kona winds. With soils already saturated from this past weekend, additional rainfall could quickly lead to runoff and flooding impacts.
Short term update
Issued at 952 AM HST Tue Mar 17 2026
An area of light showers was moving ENE over the Kauai Channel this morning, and there were also a few showers over Maui. Scattered showers are forecast to continue today, most numerous over the eastern islands. Rainfall amounts will be low to perhaps moderate. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies and relatively light winds, generally 5-15 mph. No updates are needed at this time.
Prev discussion
Issued at 305 AM HST Tue Mar 17 2026
In the wake of the significant kona low that impacted the state over the past several days, a broad and persistent upper-level trough remains anchored over the region. While the kona low has weakened and lifted away, the larger-scale pattern remains largely unchanged, with deep tropical moisture continuing to stream northward over portions of the state. Precipitable water values remain anomalously high, maintaining a moist air mass across the region.
Model guidance continues to indicate a relative decrease in widespread heavy rainfall through the next couple of days, particularly over the western end of the state. However, this should not be interpreted as a return to benign conditions. Periods of showers will persist, with the best chances expected across Maui County and the Big Island, where the axis of deepest moisture is forecast to remain focused through midweek.
By the latter half of the week, the upper-level trough is forecast to deepen west of the state. This feature is expected to re-expand the axis of anomalous moisture back across the entire island chain while increasing large-scale ascent. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to develop and approach the islands, with moderate kona winds returning and dewpoints climbing back toward 70 degrees.
This evolving pattern will support a renewed increase in shower coverage and intensity from late week into the weekend, with model consensus suggesting an additional several inches of rainfall possible over portions of the state during this period. While this next system does not currently appear to be as intense as the recent event, it will impact an already highly saturated environment.
Given the antecedent conditions, including elevated streams and saturated soils, even moderate rainfall rates may quickly lead to runoff issues. The threat for flash flooding will become elevated statewide by Friday, with the potential for more significant impacts persisting through the weekend.
Aviation
Issued at 305 AM HST Tue Mar 17 2026
Passing showers continue over the entire state early this morning as a surface trough moves into the state with intermittent MVFR and IFR conditions at select TAF sites across Maui County and the Big Island. Conditions look to improve over Kauai and Oahu this afternoon as the trough pushes east to Maui County. The trough will keep some showers and MVFR cigs/vsbys around Maui County and the Big Island with isolated periods of IFR conditions through the forecast period.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for Kauai, Maui, Lanai, and the Big Island and will likely be extended this morning. Kauai will likely be clear of mtn obsc by this afternoon. No other AIRMETS are currently in effect.
Marine
Issued at 305 AM HST Tue Mar 17 2026
Light and variable winds will prevailing through midweek, with daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes near the coasts. A brief period of light trades will be possible by midweek as a weak ridge builds north of the state, followed by light to moderate S winds late in the week as a new system approaches from the west.
Surf along exposed north and west facing shores are trending up this morning as a fresh north-northwest swell builds down the island chain. This source should peak today through Wednesday (overhead to double overhead at peak spots), then ease into the second half of the week as it shifts out of the north-northeast.
Surf along S shores will trend up later today through midweek as a fresh long period south swell arrives. This swell will peak Wednesday through Thursday (head high), then ease into the weekend.
Surf along east facing shores will remain well below average due to the lack of trades locally and upstream. The exception will be for east facing shores exposed to north-northeast swells expected later this week/weekend.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.
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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov
