West Kaua’i

Tonight: Windy. Showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 56 above 3000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 35 mph with gusts to 60 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Monday: Windy. Cloudy with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 73 to 78 near the shore to around 64 above 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 35 mph with gusts to 60 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday Night: Windy. Cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 60 above 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Gusts up to 55 mph decreasing to 45 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

South Kaua’i

Tonight: Windy. Showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows around 65. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Monday: Windy. Showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 67 to 73. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Monday Night: Breezy. Cloudy with showers. Lows around 68. East winds 20 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 55 mph in the evening. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Kaua’i Mountains

Tonight: Very windy. Showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows 57 to 63 in the valleys to around 53 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds 20 to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Monday: Very windy. Showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 62 to 71 in the valleys to around 58 above 4000 feet. East winds 20 to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Monday Night: Very windy. Showers. Lows 60 to 65 in the valleys to around 57 above 4000 feet. East winds 20 to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

North Kaua’i

Tonight: Windy. Showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows 59 to 67. East winds 15 to 35 mph with gusts to 60 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Monday: Windy. Cloudy with showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 66 to 76. East winds 15 to 35 mph with gusts to 60 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Monday Night: Breezy. Cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 62 to 69. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 60 mph in the evening. Chance of rain 70 percent.

East Kaua’i

Tonight: Windy. Showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows 59 to 69. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Monday: Windy. Showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 64 to 74. East winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Monday Night: Breezy and showers. Lows 63 to 72. East winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Update

Currently at the surface, a trough of low pressure is located just south and southwest of the state, while a 1035 mb high is centered several hundred miles north of the islands. The gradient remains very strong locally, with windy conditions affecting the entire state. The strongest winds continue to be over and downwind of the higher terrain, through valleys, and in other local acceleration areas, where frequent wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph have been occurring throughout the day. Infrared satellite imagery shows overcast conditions across the islands. Radar imagery shows moderate to heavy showers affecting many windward areas, particularly over Maui and the Big Island, while shower coverage and intensity is much lower in leeward areas. Main short term focus revolves around heavy rain and damaging wind potential tonight and Monday.
The overall forecast appears on track, with deep moisture remaining over the islands in association with the old dissipated front. This in combination with divergence aloft and strong winds aiding orographic lift, will continue to support areas of heavy rain primarily over windward slopes and coasts, along with a slight chance for a rumble or two of thunder. The Flood Watch remains in effect through 6 PM Monday.
Winds are forecast to strengthen overnight into Monday as the gradient over the islands tightens further. This is in response to high pressure strengthening to around 1039 mb well north of the state, while a weak low develops several hundred miles southwest of the islands. As a result, the High Wind Warning remains in effect through 6 PM Monday as well.
Finally, the Winter Storm Warning for the Big Island summits remains in effect through 6 PM Monday for elevations above 11000 feet.
See the following link for information on rainfall totals and peak wind gusts across the state during the past 24 hours:
– www.weather.gov/hfo/pns

Synopsis

Ample moisture remains over the area thanks to a surface trough (the remains of a front) and an upper level low to our west- southwest. This upper low will weaken and slowly drift farther to the southwest and away from the state through Wednesday. A surface high to our north will strengthen overnight, helping keep strong trade winds blowing through tomorrow, with only a little bit of weakening going into Tuesday. The potential for flooding will remain over all islands tonight and Monday, with the highest chance over windward Maui County and windward Big Island. Strong winds will continue to occur over all islands as well, with the strongest winds in the lee of mountains and in/near stronger showers. There is still a slight chance of thunderstorms through Monday. After Tuesday, trades will maintain above-normal strength, and windward showers will be plentiful, but the high threat potential of today through Monday will end.

Aviation

Issued at 318 PM HST Sun Feb 8 2026
A surface high pressure passing north of the state and surface trough deepening southwest of the state will generate strong to gale force trades across the island chain into Monday. SHRA and low cigs are causing MVFR and isol IFR conds. Expect gusts in excess of 40 kts.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for all islands.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod to isol turb across all islands and adjacent waters due to the weather system over the state up to FL360. Sustained winds in excess of 30 kt is also expected into Monday.
Light icing is expected in cloud layer 110-FL250 across the state.

Marine

Issued at 318 PM HST Sun Feb 8 2026
A trough over central waters and a strong high building north of the area will result in gale force trade winds, rough seas and numerous showers across all coastal waters through Monday. A Gale Warning is in effect through Monday afternoon for all surrounding waters. Winds are expected to ease some on Tuesday, but trade winds will remain in the strong range with near gales over the windier waters and channels through the week.
Strong trade winds will bring large and very rough surf along east facing shores through Monday night. A High Surf Warning has been issued for all exposed east facing shores through this time. Surf will slowly decline Tuesday into Wednesday but will still remain somewhat elevated, possibly advisory level Tuesday, through the remainder of the week. Trade winds will remain in the fresh to strong range from Tuesday through the end of the week.
Small to moderate north northwest to northwest swells will prevail through the week bringing minor surf to north and west facing shores. Surf along south facing shores will remain small with some small background south-southwest energy expected throughout the first half of the week. Select southern exposures exposed to the wind swell will likely see some larger waves as well.

Prev discussion

/ISSUED 318 PM HST Sun Feb 8 2026/
Satellite shows overcast skies this afternoon, which is not surprising given the storm we are experiencing. Radar indicates widespread rain, some heavy, on all islands except Oahu. There, the leeside is relatively rain-free, but a few light showers have appeared through the afternoon so far. Most islands have reported rainfall of over an inch in the past three hours in at least a few locations, and in some cases this heavy rain is widespread. Several locations on the Big Island have reported over 10 inches of rain in the past 24 hours, with a maximum of 14.67 inches at Honokaa. There have been additional mudslides/landslides today, mainly on the Big Island. Winds were gusty in many locations, especially downwind of higher terrain. Several gusts over 60 mph have been reported (including one over 70!), with widespread reports greater than 40 mph. Numerous trees have been downed and there are many areas without power (although many others have been restored already). A final note on current conditions, today has been quite cool, with the Honolulu airport reporting a high of only 70 so far. Monday will be cool again, with perhaps just a couple degrees of warming compared to today.
An upper level low several hundred miles to the southwest is helping draw plenty of moisture northeast over the state. It is also providing cold temperatures aloft, helping to increase instability leading to isolated thunderstorms. These have remained offshore (to the southwest of Kauai County near the center of the upper level low) so far. At the surface, a 1035 mb high to the north combined with a trough of low pressure to the south has resulted in a strong pressure gradient across the region. This is bringing us the strong trade winds (generally 20-30 mph with higher gusts) at low levels. These winds become stronger as showers “mix down” stronger winds from a few thousand feet up, where wind speeds are 35-50 mph. They also become stronger as winds move down mountain ranges, where a “mountain wave” can occasionally form. This process can produce wind gusts at or above 60 mph.
The upper low will remain nearly stationary tonight, then slowly drift southwest as it weakens through Wednesday. At the surface, the high to the north will intensify tonight, helping to increase winds across the state. The High Wind Warning for most areas will remain in effect through 6 PM Monday. Rain will continue through the night and into tomorrow as well, so the Flood Watch will also remain in effect through 6 PM HST Monday. The heaviest rain is still expected across windward areas, with light to moderate rain elsewhere. Snow will continue on the summits of Big Island, therefore the Winter Storm Warning there will continue Overall, very little has changed with the forecast this afternoon.
Looking farther into the future, the surface high will undergo evolution as one center weakens and another takes its place, but the result will be a continuation of moderate to strong trade winds through next week. We will see significantly less widespread precipitation starting Wednesday, but windward areas will see numerous showers through the end of the week.
AVIATION… Issued at 318 PM HST Sun Feb 8 2026
A surface high pressure passing north of the state and surface trough deepening southwest of the state will generate strong to gale force trades across the island chain into Monday. SHRA and low cigs are causing MVFR and isol IFR conds. Expect gusts in excess of 40 kts.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for all islands.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod to isol turb across all islands and adjacent waters due to the weather system over the state up to FL360. Sustained winds in excess of 30 kt is also expected into Monday.
Light icing is expected in cloud layer 110-FL250 across the state.
MARINE… Issued at 318 PM HST Sun Feb 8 2026
A trough over central waters and a strong high building north of the area will result in gale force trade winds, rough seas and numerous showers across all coastal waters through Monday. A Gale Warning is in effect through Monday afternoon for all surrounding waters. Winds are expected to ease some on Tuesday, but trade winds will remain in the strong range with near gales over the windier waters and channels through the week.
Strong trade winds will bring large and very rough surf along east facing shores through Monday night. A High Surf Warning has been issued for all exposed east facing shores through this time. Surf will slowly decline Tuesday into Wednesday but will still remain somewhat elevated, possibly advisory level Tuesday, through the remainder of the week. Trade winds will remain in the fresh to strong range from Tuesday through the end of the week.
Small to moderate north northwest to northwest swells will prevail through the week bringing minor surf to north and west facing shores. Surf along south facing shores will remain small with some small background south-southwest energy expected throughout the first half of the week. Select southern exposures exposed to the wind swell will likely see some larger waves as well.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Kauai Mountains, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Olomana, Central Oahu, Waianae Mountains, Lanai Mauka, Kahoolawe, Maui Windward West, Maui Leeward West, Haleakala Summit, Kona, Kohala, Big Island Interior, Kauai North, Kauai East, Kauai South, East Honolulu, Honolulu Metro, Ewa Plain, Koolau Windward, Koolau Leeward, Molokai, Lanai Windward, Lanai Leeward, Lanai South, Maui Central Valley North, Maui Central Valley South, Windward Haleakala, Kipahulu, South Maui/Upcountry, South Haleakala, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast, Big Island East, Big Island North.
High Wind Warning until 6 PM HST Monday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Kauai Mountains, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Olomana, Central Oahu, Waianae Mountains, Lanai Mauka, Kahoolawe, Maui Windward West, Maui Leeward West, Kohala, Big Island Interior, Kauai North, Kauai East, Kauai South, East Honolulu, Honolulu Metro, Ewa Plain, Koolau Windward, Koolau Leeward, Molokai, Lanai Windward, Lanai Leeward, Lanai South, Maui Central Valley North, Maui Central Valley South, Windward Haleakala, Kipahulu, South Maui/Upcountry, South Haleakala, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast, Big Island North.
High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Olomana, Kahoolawe, Maui Windward West, Kauai East, East Honolulu, Koolau Windward, Molokai Windward, Molokai Southeast, Windward Haleakala, Kipahulu, South Haleakala, Big Island Southeast, Big Island East, Big Island North.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM HST Monday for Big Island Summits.
Gale Warning until 6 PM HST Monday for all Hawaiian waters,

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov