West Kaua’i

Tonight: Windy. Frequent showers. Lows around 75 near the shore to around 66 above 3000 feet. Southeast winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Frequent showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 77 above 3000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 75 near the shore to around 66 above 3000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

South Kaua’i

Tonight: Breezy. Frequent showers. Lows 72 to 77. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with frequent showers. Highs 79 to 87. South winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with frequent showers. Lows 72 to 77. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Kaua’i Mountains

Tonight: Windy. Frequent showers. Lows around 71 in the valleys to around 63 above 4000 feet. South winds 10 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Wednesday: Cloudy and breezy. Frequent showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83 in the valleys to around 68 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 71 in the valleys to around 63 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

North Kaua’i

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 76. Southeast winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 87. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 67 to 76. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Kaua’i

Tonight: Breezy. Frequent showers. Lows 68 to 77. Southeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with frequent showers. Highs 76 to 86. South winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with frequent showers. Lows 68 to 77. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Hurricane Nolo will slowly pass to the west of the state over the next couple of days bringing increasing showers across Kauai and Oahu. Breezy southeast winds will continue through Wednesday, then gradually weaken and become trade winds by this weekend.

Discussion

Hurricane Nolo is around 310 miles west of Lihue this afternoon tracking north at 8 mph. Nolo is expected to briefly stall west of the state tonight, then begin to move away to the west northwest. Breezy southeast winds will continue across the state into Wednesday as Nolo remains close to the area.
While Nolo will not make direct impacts to the state, rain bands along the eastern periphery will move in the southeast flow and bring showers across Kauai and Oahu through Thursday. Expecting to see 3 to 6 inches of additional rain on Kauai and Niihau, and up to 4 inches on Oahu. Not considering a Flood Watch with the anticipation these rainfall amounts will be spread out over several days and showers should be moving along quickly. However, southeast flow will direct showers across the populated areas of both islands. The rest of the state will be under a hybrid east southeast flow pattern where the Big Island will partially block Maui County resulting in localized nighttime land that will clear skies out and daytime sea breezes that will bring interior cloud cover. Precipitation across Maui County and Big Island will be minimal.
East southeasterly winds will continue, but gradually weaken, through the second half of the week as Nolo tracks away. Winds will back to moderate trades by the weekend.
On Monday and Tuesday, a weak front will push across the islands and stall near the Big Island through the remainder of the week. Winds will taper off behind this front as a second front approaches much slower. Lingering clouds and showers near the Big Island and light winds statewide next week will result in a diurnal land and sea breeze weather pattern.

Aviation

Moderate trade winds between 10 to 15 knots continue. Wind gusts have been slower to materialize this afternoon but should pick up briefly late afternoon into the early evening. Winds decrease overnight with a return to a more normal diurnal wind pattern expected tomorrow. Hurricane Nolo remains well to the west of the state but it will bring another round of showers to Kauai and Oahu this evening into tomorrow. Light to moderate showers will reach Kauai this evening and reach Oahu overnight/early Wednesday morning. MVFR conditions are expected across Kauai, where the bulk of the rain will be concentrated, while temporary MVFR conditions may impact Oahu airports during heavier showers. Isolated showers may extend towards Molokai, Maui, and Lanai.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence below 9,000 feet over and immediately downwind of island terrain. This AIRMET will be needed through at least Wednesday and potentially into Thursday.

Marine

Moderate to fresh SE winds prevails over area waters. Strong to near-gale SE flow will develop tonight into Wednesday around Kauai due to Hurricane Nolo's close proximity. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for these waters. Moderate trades return early next week.
The moderate, medium period SW swell originating from Nolo has eased slightly with the latest observations coming in below the High Surf Advisory (HSA). The HSA has therefore been allowed to expire. Surf along E shores has declined in response to emerging SE flow. Surf will remain small until moderate trades return early next week providing a modest boost. Multiple rounds of tiny swell originating out of the northwest quadrant will reach north and select west facing exposures next week as the storm track in the vicinity of the Aleutian Islands becomes increasingly active.

Fire weather

Fire conditions improving through the remainder of the week to due an increase in moisture across the state and breezy southeast winds.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov