West Kaua’i

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 55 above 3000 feet. Light winds.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 70 above 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 56 above 3000 feet. West winds up to 15 mph shifting to the north after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Kaua’i

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 65. Light winds.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 77 to 83. Light winds becoming southwest around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 65. West winds around 10 mph shifting to the north after midnight. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaua’i Mountains

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming clear. Lows 57 to 64 in the valleys to around 53 above 4000 feet. Light winds.

Tuesday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 79 in the valleys to around 63 above 4000 feet. Light winds becoming west up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday Night: Breezy. Cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 57 to 64 in the valleys to around 53 above 4000 feet. West winds up to 15 mph shifting to the north after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

North Kaua’i

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 59 to 66. Light winds.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 73 to 81. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 59 to 67. Northwest winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

East Kaua’i

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming clear. Lows 58 to 69. Light winds.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 72 to 82. Light winds becoming south up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 59 to 69. West winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the north after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Southeastly low level winds will bring some light showers along windward and mauka locations through Tuesday. A front will move into the western end of the state Tuesday night. Increased moisture will linger for several days and possibly into the weekend.

Discussion

Some light isolated showers continue to move across the state this afternoon. Satellite imagery shows sunny skies outside of those showers. Clouds and showers will continue to move from the southeast through the rest of the evening. Light to moderate southeast winds will continue to veer through tomorrow, leading to warmer and more humid conditions. They will become light enough to allow for a sea/land breeze set up. A cold front will approach Kauai County Tuesday night.
Latest guidance is still showing a variety of solutions on timing and extent of the eastward movement of the front. Right now it looks like the front will stall near Oahu Wednesday afternoon. Thursday and Friday, there are roughly equal chances that the front then gets pushed to near the Big Island, or alternatively pulls back west toward Kauai. Either way, moisture will increase over the state and the chance of rain increases over all islands. This has as much to do with increasing moisture coming in on southeast low level flow over the eastern part of the state as it does moisture from the front itself.
Models also indicate that the extensive moisture could remain over the state through the coming weekend. Overall, it will be a return to a wetter and warmer pattern. There is a small risk of thunderstorms, heavy rain, and flooding, but details are clear as mud and thus confidence is too low for any specifics.

Aviation

A light to moderate east-southeasterly wind regime is expected to continue as a front from the NW moves closer to the islands. The winds will continue to be light enough to allow land and sea breezes to occur within the next 24 hours. Light and isolated showers embedded within the flow are possible, but VFR conditions are still expected statewide.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect, and none are anticipated through tonight.

Marine

Southeast winds will continue weakening through Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The front will reach the far northwest coastal waters Tuesday night, moving down the the island chain Wednesday and stalling out across Oahu and Maui County Wednesday. Northeast winds will increase along and behind the front, and remain stronger across the western half of the state through Friday.
A moderate, long period, northwest swell is expected to arrive in the islands Tuesday, and linger into the middle of the week, and slowly subside during the end of the week. This swell will maintain elevated surf near advisory levels along exposed north and west facing shores.
East shore surf will remain small into Tuesday as winds taper off. Surf will increase a little bit as the northeast winds pick up along the front, but mostly impact Kauai and Oahu. There are no noteworthy swells for the next few days for south facing shores.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov