#federal policies

The organization’s 2025 second quarter forecast shows sharp increases in U.S. import tariffs, sweeping federal layoffs along with volatile fiscal and immigration policies are undermining consumer confidence, raising inflation expectations and worsening the business outlook — nationally and in Hawaiʻi’s visitor-dependent economy.

While tax cuts may provide some stimulus this year, the new administration’s actions — including tariffs, mass deportations and spending cuts — will impose significant drag thereafter, UHERO states in its first quarter forecast for 2025.