West Kaua’i

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 61 above 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 85 to 90 near the shore to around 73 above 3000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph. Gusts up to 50 mph in the morning. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 62 above 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Kaua’i

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 69 to 77. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 87. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 70 to 77. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kaua’i Mountains

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Showers likely in the evening, then showers after midnight. Lows around 68 in the valleys to around 59 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 81 in the valleys to around 64 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the evening, then showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 71 in the valleys to around 59 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

North Kaua’i

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 67 to 74. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 76 to 85. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 67 to 74. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Kaua’i

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 76. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 73 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 77. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

High pressure drives breezy trades into next week. Expect showers focused windward and mauka during this time. An uptick in shower coverage is anticipated Thursday night into the weekend, particularly overnight and during the morning.

Discussion

Upper air pattern between roughly 20N and 30N remains stagnant and blocky through the period with upper ridging flanked on either side by closed lows. Governing high pressure changes little in position or intensity for the remainder of the week leaving the islands in a rather typical breezy trade wind pattern. Medium range guidance is in strong agreement that increased moisture characterized by PWATs in the 1.5″ to 1.75″ range will become entrained in prevailing trades leading to an uptick in shower coverage and intensity of showers from Thursday night into the weekend as the inversion weakens and lifts to around 12kft. A noteworthy increase in humidity at the surface also occurs during this time as dewpoints rise into the low 70s. The increased mugginess will be somewhat offset by continued breezy trades.

Aviation

Moderate to breezy trades will continue for the next several days. Low clouds and scattered showers will move over windward and mountain areas, with some spillover into leeward sites. VFR for most sites at most times, with occasional localized MVFR mainly for windward/mauka sites.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate to occasionally severe low level turbulence over and downwind of terrain for all islands. This AIRMET will likely continue through the next several days.

Marine

A strong high pressure ridge centered north of the state will help to drive fresh to strong trades across all local waters through Tuesday afternoon. Winds will ease slightly to fresh to locally strong by midweek and beyond. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all waters through Tuesday afternoon.
A moderate, long period, south southwest (180-190 degrees) swell will continue to generate surf along south facing shores just below advisory levels. This swell will slowly fade Tuesday through the remainder of the week. Expect small surf for south facing shores leading into this weekend with mainly background energy. Another moderate, long period south southwest swell (210-220 degrees) may fill in Sunday but due to the direction of the source could be more inconsistent than this current swell.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the week as fresh to strong trades hold. Expect flat to tiny surf along north facing shores through the forecast period.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov