A single new condominium tower in Honolulu may have opened up hundreds of additional housing opportunities across Oʻahu, according to new research from the University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization.
The study examines a concept known as housing filtering, a process in which new construction sets off a chain of moves that frees up existing homes across the market. When a household moves into a newly built unit, it leaves behind a previous home, creating an opportunity for another household, and so on.
UHERO Associate Professor Justin Tyndall tracked this effect using The Central, a 512-unit mixed-income condo completed in 2021 near Ala Moana. He estimated the project generated more than 500 housing vacancies islandwide within three years, expanding availability far beyond the building itself.
“For policymakers and planners, the results highlight the importance of considering these broader market dynamics when evaluating housing policy,” Tyndall wrote. “Expanding housing supply in high-demand areas can improve affordability not only through income-restricted units, but also through the filtering process that returns older housing stock to the market.”
He said policies that block market-rate housing construction, because new units are expensive, can be largely counterproductive.
“The production of all types of housing pushes up the overall supply of homes and can contribute to greater affordability across all segments of the market,” Tyndall said.
The homes freed up through these chains were often more affordable and larger than the new units. On average, they were about 40 percent less expensive per square foot and more likely to include single-family homes with three or more bedrooms.
The study also found that market-rate units tended to produce more total vacancies, while income-restricted units more often opened up lower-cost housing options. Most of the movement remained local, with the majority of households relocating within Hawaiʻi.
