West Kaua’i

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 69 above 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 58 above 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 68 above 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

South Kaua’i

Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 74 to 81. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 68. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Cloudy with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 73 to 80. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kaua’i Mountains

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 76 in the valleys to around 60 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 59 to 66 in the valleys to around 55 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 68 to 75 in the valleys to around 60 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

North Kaua’i

Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 71 to 81. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 60 to 69. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Cloudy with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 71 to 80. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

East Kaua’i

Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 68 to 79. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 61 to 71. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 67 to 78. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Issued at 358 AM HST Thu Feb 19 2026
Locally strong trades will gradually ease through the rest of the week. Moisture embedded in the trades will allow showers to favor windward and mauka areas through Friday. An overall wetter pattern is expected this weekend as additional moisture is drawn over the island chain.

Short term update

Issued at 942 AM HST Thu Feb 19 2026
The current forecast remains on track, so no changes were made with this mid-morning update. Radar and satellite imagery continue to show isolated to scattered showers moving into windward and mauka areas this morning on the breezy to locally windy east-southeast trade wind flow.
For today and tonight, the focus remains on the easing, slightly veered trade winds and the gradual increase in low level moisture carried in on this flow.
Heading into the weekend, in addition to the uptick in moisture being brought in on the trades, increased moisture will also move across the state from the west along a dissipating frontal boundary and as an upper level trough sets up overhead. The resulting increase in moisture and instability will lead to the potential for localized flooding and isolated thunderstorms through the weekend.

Discussion

Issued at 358 AM HST Thu Feb 19 2026
Early this morning, regional infrared satellite imagery shows a line of strong thunderstorms along and ahead of a nearly stationary front west of the main Hawaiian Islands. This line of thunderstorms has been making its way eastward throughout the night, and is now near the western-most edge of the offshore waters area. High clouds ahead of these storms have begun moving into the western portions of the state this morning, and model guidance and satellite trends suggest increasing coverage of high clouds throughout the rest of the day.
Meanwhile, surface observations show that breezy trade winds are continuing to prevail across the islands, particularly across the typical wind-prone areas of Maui County and the Big Island, as strong high pressure remains centered far north of the state. With that said, winds have largely decreased to slightly below advisory levels, and are expected to continue a gradual decline throughout the day today as the high to our north weakens. Therefore, the Wind Advisory that was previously in effect for portions of Oahu through the Big Island has been cancelled with this morning's forecast updates. As far as precipitation is concerned, showers will continue to favor windward and mauka areas for the next couple of days, with showers and areas of low clouds embedded within the trades.
A more dynamic weather pattern looks to develop across the islands from Friday into the weekend, when the state could reside somewhere along the gradient between trades to the east and light southeast flow to the west. Model guidance has been fairly consistent in showing that southeast flow in the lower levels could expand moisture over the islands as early as Friday, then stall it over the state through the weekend. With 500mb temperatures cooling into the -10C to -13C range, and at least some instability in the region, felt it was worth adding isolated thunderstorms into the forecast with this morning's forecast updates, first for Kauai and then expanding eastward Friday into Sunday. It remains to be seen exactly how much instability will set up over the islands, however, as models are only showing surface dewpoints in the mid 60s or so. Regardless, the weekend looks to be a wetter pattern where localized flooding and isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, particularly for windward areas. Winds will be lighter throughout this period, with locally strong trades forecast to return to the islands early next week.

Aviation

Issued at 358 AM HST Thu Feb 19 2026
Breezy trade winds are expected to ease slightly during the day today as strong high pressure to the north temporarily weakens. High clouds will move in as a result of a slow-moving low pressure system to our west, however shower activity is expected to remain isolated to windward sites through the period.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for tempo moderate turbulence below 8000 feet over leeward sides of the islands as a result of the strong low level winds. This AIRMET is expected to continue through the day today, however conditions may become marginal as winds decrease.

Marine

Issued at 358 AM HST Thu Feb 19 2026
A strong high pressure system to the north and a low pressure system and front just west of the offshore waters will allow strong to near gale force east to east southeast winds to blow through Friday. Winds are expected to decrease gradually as the high pressure and front weaken, and then a new high builds in to the distant north by the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for all coastal waters through this afternoon due to a combination of winds and seas. This SCA will likely be modified and extended later tonight to include the typical windy areas as the winds decrease. The trade winds and seas are then expected to gradually lower Friday through the weekend.
Unsettled weather is expected Friday through the weekend as a mid and upper level trough is forecast to move over the islands from west to east. Isolated thunderstorms can be expected around Kauai and Oahu waters by Friday afternoon, then spread to the rest of the islands by the weekend. Windward waters currently appear to have the highest chance of thunderstorms. Winds look to be lighter to the south of each island, and fresh to the north of each island on Friday. Winds then become light and variable Saturday through Sunday.
Surf will hold relatively steady along east facing shores through today before gradually decreasing tonight through the weekend as winds decrease. The High Surf Advisory (HSA) is in effect through this afternoon.
Surf along north and west facing shores will remain well below seasonal levels through the weekend, and surf along south facing shores will remain small.
Forerunners from a large, long-period north to north-northeast swell are forecast to arrive Sunday night, then rapidly build to near warning levels along north facing shores Monday through Tuesday. Also due to the northerly direction, elevated surf heights are expected along west Maui and west Big Island near Kua Bay. Surf heights are expected to reach advisory threshold for west Big Island on Monday and could reach advisory threshold for west Maui as well. Lastly, due to the large swell and northerly direction (010-030 degrees), heavy surges are expected along north facing harbors such as Kahului and Hilo harbors.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island East, Big Island North, Big Island Southeast, East Honolulu, Kauai East, Kauai South, Kipahulu, Koolau Windward, Maui Windward West, Molokai Southeast, Molokai Windward, Olomana, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters, Big Island Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Kauai Channel, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Maui County Leeward Waters, Maui County Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Oahu Windward Waters, Pailolo Channel.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov