West Kaua’i

Today: Cloudy and breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 67 above 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 50 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 57 above 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 69 above 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Kaua’i

Today: Breezy. Cloudy with numerous showers. Highs 73 to 80. East winds 20 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 67. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 75 to 81. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kaua’i Mountains

Today: Windy and showers. Highs 68 to 75 in the valleys to around 60 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers. Lows 58 to 66 in the valleys to around 55 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 76 in the valleys to around 60 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

North Kaua’i

Today: Breezy and showers. Highs 71 to 79. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 60 to 68. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 72 to 80. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

East Kaua’i

Today: Breezy and showers. Highs 67 to 78. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 61 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 68 to 79. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

High pressure north and northeast of the islands will continue to deliver windward and mauka showers on breezy to windy trades through early next week.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a trough low pressure is located several miles southwest of the islands, while a 1034 mb high is centered several hundred miles to the north-northeast of the state. The resulting pressure gradient remains very tight early this morning, with windy conditions prevailing across the entire island chain. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy to overcast conditions, with radar imagery showing scattered to numerous showers moving into windward slopes and coasts, particularly over Kauai. Main short term focus revolves around rain chances and the strong trades.
Strong high pressure will hold in place north of the islands today and tonight, keeping breezy to windy conditions in place across the island chain. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for all islands through 6 PM this evening, and there is the potential this may need to be extended for portions of the area through early Wednesday. The trades should ease up some late in the week and over the weekend, but breezy conditions will continue for much of the state.
As for the other weather details, a band of deeper moisture will sink southward through the islands today through early Wednesday, keeping a bit more showery trade wind pattern in place across the state. The moisture will be deep enough and temperatures cold enough, that some more snow could affect the Big Island summits above 12,000 feet mainly tonight into early Wednesday. A Winter Weather Advisory could be required for the high elevation summits later today.
Some drier air appears to appears to move in for the end of the work week, bringing a decrease in the trade wind showers. There remains some uncertainty regarding the potential for some unsettled weather over the weekend. The latest model solutions have trended further west compared with their solutions from 24 hours ago, so we will continue to stick with continuity and advertise a typical trade wind pattern until details become more clear.

Aviation

A strong, broad area of high pressure remains north of the Hawaiian Islands and will continue to generate strong to near gale trades through the rest of today before gradually weakening to a more breezy trade wind pattern. Shower activity and increased cloud cover also continues, predominately favoring windward and mauka areas, which may create MVFR conditions at times. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail across the remainder of the state.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc over all smaller islands and windward portions of the Big Island.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for tempo mod isol sev turb below 070 for leeward sides of the islands and mod tempo turb between FL240 to FL380 over entire area.
Light icing is expected in cloud layer 120-FL250 across the state.

Marine

A strong high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands will slowly drift eastward over the next few days. Trade wind speeds will gradually weaken from strong to gale force today to fresh to strong from Wednesday onward. The Gale Warning for windier waters and channels around Maui and the Big Island and the Small Craft Advisories for the rest of the coastal waters were extended through the tonight time period. Expect the Gale Warning to drop back to SCA levels for windier coastal waters from Wednesday on into the weekend.
The strong trade winds will keep high surf and very rough seas along east facing shores of most islands today and tonight, and the High Surf Advisory was extended in time through early Wednesday morning to cover these conditions. Slowly decreasing easterly trade winds tomorrow will cause surf heights to fall along east facing shores below advisory thresholds by Wednesday morning. However, elevated surf heights along east facing shores will keep rough conditions in the forecast just below surf advisory thresholds into Friday.
Small to medium northwest swells will continue through the week with smaller surf lingering in the forecast along north and west facing shores for the foreseeable future. Small background medium period south swell energy will keep surf heights along the south facing shores on the tiny side lasting into early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Kauai Mountains, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Olomana, Central Oahu, Waianae Mountains, Lanai Mauka, Kahoolawe, Maui Windward West, Maui Leeward West, Kohala, Big Island Interior, Kauai North, Kauai East, Kauai South, East Honolulu, Honolulu Metro, Ewa Plain, Koolau Windward, Koolau Leeward, Molokai, Lanai Windward, Lanai Leeward, Lanai South, Maui Central Valley North, Maui Central Valley South, Windward Haleakala, Kipahulu, South Maui/Upcountry, South Haleakala, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast, Big Island North.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Olomana, Kahoolawe, Maui Windward West, Kauai East, East Honolulu, Koolau Windward, Molokai Windward, Molokai Southeast, Windward Haleakala, Kipahulu, South Haleakala, Big Island Southeast, Big Island East, Big Island North.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters.
Gale Warning until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov