Health care forecast to be state’s fastest-growing industry during next decade

Hawai‘i’s health care and social assistance sector is projected to be the fastest-growing industry in the state during the next decade — and the largest contributor to job creation — based on 2022 employment data and forecast trends through 2032.

That’s according to the Research and Statistics Office of Hawai‘i Department of Labor and Industrial Relations, which released this week its latest statewide employment projections for industries and occupations.

Health care jobs are forecast to grow by 12.7%, accounting for nearly one-quarter of all new jobs in the state by 2032, with particularly strong demand in social assistance services.

Food services and drinking places will follow closely — driven by the strong hospitality sector in the islands — projected to see an 11.9% growth.

Hawai‘i’s total employment is projected to grow by 6.1% during the next decade, increasing from 671,010 jobs in 2022 to 712,200 by 2032 — an addition of 41,190 jobs.

Just more than 83,000 job openings each year are expected, with 55% resulting from workers changing jobs, 40% exiting the labor force and just 5% from actual job growth.

“This breakdown highlights the importance of workforce replacement and job mobility in the state’s labor market,” the Research and Statistics Office said in a release about the new jobs projections.

Statewide job forecasts are published during even-numbered years, while county-specific projections are issued during odd-numbered years.

Other projected top growing industry highlights:

• The accommodation industry is forecast to increase 10.2%, while creating 3,750 positions.
• The self-employed sector, bolstered by the post-pandemic gig economy, is expected to reach 58,150 workers by 2032.
• In contrast, government and retail trade employment are projected to decline, influenced by federal policies and continuing shift toward e-commerce.

Key highlights, comprehensive data tables and other labor market information tools — such as Best Job Opportunities to 2032 — can be accessed on the Employment Projections page of Hawai‘i Workforce Infonet.

Detailed narrative reports from this year’s projections will be available by the end of this month.

Projections are a valuable tool for:

• Students and jobseekers exploring career options.
• Education and training providers developing programs.
• Job placement specialists and career counselors guiding individuals toward employment.
• Program managers and policymakers shaping workforce strategies.
• Employers planning for growth or relocation.

The projections were funded by the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration through the Workforce and Labor Market Information Grants to States program, with a total award of $321,585 for program year 2024.