Photo Credit: Jason Weingardt

West Kaua’i

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 73 above 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 62 above 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Veterans Day: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 73 above 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Kaua’i

Today: Partly sunny with numerous showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82. Northeast winds around 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 73. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Veterans Day: Partly sunny with numerous showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kaua’i Mountains

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 77 in the valleys to around 66 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows around 66 in the valleys to around 58 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Veterans Day: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 77 in the valleys to around 66 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

North Kaua’i

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 73 to 82. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 74. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Veterans Day: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 73 to 82. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Kaua’i

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 73 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 75. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Veterans Day: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 73 to 83. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds are expected to persist through the week, with showers favoring windward and mauka locations as areas of moisture move through. The trade winds may become strong from Wednesday through the second half of the week.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement, showing breezy easterly trades continuing as deep layer ridging remains positioned to the north. The leading edge of a low cloud band has drifted south into Kauai overnight, which has led to showery conditions. Peak rainfall accumulations over the past 12 h (ending at 2 am HST) ranged between 1 and 1.2 inches on Kauai. Elsewhere, mostly dry conditions have been in place with minimal accumulations. The early morning upper air soundings reflected this with a more moist low-level profile below a subsidence inversion positioned around 6,400 feet on Kauai. Guidance shows this showery cloud band lingering in the area into Monday (mostly influencing Kauai and possibly Oahu tonight) before diminishing. Drier air is expected to move in later Monday through Tuesday, which should help reduce shower coverage.
The trade winds may become strong and gusty from Wednesday through the second half of the week, as strong high pressure builds to the north in the wake of a cold front. The tail end of this front could settle southward toward the islands Friday into next weekend. The increase in moisture, combined with lowering upper heights, could enhance shower activity over windward areas next weekend if this scenario materializes.

Aviation

Easterly trades will continue through the rest of the weekend. SHRA and low cigs should be confined to windward and mauka locations. Brief MVFR conds are possible in SHRA but VFR should prevail.
AIRMET Tango for mod low level turb remains in effect over and down wind of all island terrain.

Marine

A high pressure system north of the Hawaiian Islands will drift eastward over the next two days. Fresh to locally strong NE to E trade winds will continue through Tuesday. Trade wind speeds will strengthen to near gale levels by Wednesday, as another stronger high pressure system builds in north of the island chain. Stronger trade winds will continue through Friday.
The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island and could be expanded to include all Hawaiian Coastal Waters from Wednesday onward.
The current medium period NNW (330 degree) swell will gradually decline through Monday. The forerunners of the next moderate NW (320 degree) swell will build into Hawaiian waters by early Monday morning, peaking near advisory levels by Monday evening. This swell will be followed by a slightly larger NW (320 degree) swell filling in from late Tuesday into Wednesday, which should produce advisory level surf along N and W facing shores.
Surf along E facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the middle of the week due to the breezy trade winds. Long range models are showing a significant increase of wind waves towards the latter half of this week due to a large fetch of strong trade winds setting up over and upstream of the state. Surf heights should exceed advisory thresholds along E facing shores during its peak.
Surf along S facing shores will remain small and near the seasonal average through the middle of this week. Mainly background S swell pulses linger in the long range forecast.
Also with the peak monthly tides coming up towards end of this week (Nov 14th to Nov 18th) we could see coastal inundation impacts during the early morning high tide periods for vulnerable coastal areas on all islands. The large wind waves combined with the peak monthly tides could cause greater impacts along eastern shores.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov