2024 Central Pacific hurricane season outlook predicts 1 to 4 tropical cyclones

Gov. Josh Green proclaimed May 19-25 as 2024 Hurricane Preparedness Week in Hawai‘i, and while John Bravender, warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center, said it might be a little hard to get ready for hurricane season when it seems like the wet season just doesn’t want to let go, now is exactly the time everyone should.

Hurricane season in the Central Pacific runs from June 1 through Nov. 30 each year.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the parent agency for the National Weather Service and Central Pacific Hurricane Center, issued its outlook for the 2024 hurricane season during a news conference Tuesday morning.

The outlook is predicting a below-normal season this year, with the Central Pacific seeing one to four tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.

That doesn’t mean those storms would directly strike or even impact Hawai‘i.

It is a prediction — made in collaboration with climate scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center using models, observations and data — for the total number of cyclones that could move through the entire Central Pacific basin.

The Central Pacific saw four tropical cyclones last year, including Hurricane Dora, the first major hurricane in the basin since 2020, reaching Category 4. The storm also was only the second tropical cyclone on record to maintain hurricane strength as it moved through the Eastern, Central and Western Pacific basins.

Dora stayed far to the south of the Big Island and never made landfall in the state, but a strong gradient was created between it and high pressure to the north, causing strong damaging winds blowing dry air across the islands.

Those winds fanned deadly flames of destruction Aug. 8 on Maui as fast-moving wildfires swept through and devastated the historic community of Lahaina, killing more than 100 people. It was the deadliest wildfire in U.S. history in more than a century.

Those same winds helped fuel wildfires the same day in the northern part of the Big Island. 

“It’s very important to remember everyone, the entire community, as we face the potential threat of a hurricane,” said Chris Brenchley, director of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, after he presented the 2024 outlook. “It’s important to prepare for that threat this season and not wait for a season where we expect it to be more active. Any action that you take now, however small, helps the community to be more resilient in the event of a storm impacting the community.”

For more about hurricane preparedness, click here.

Watch for additional details and more information from Tuesday’s news conference in a story Wednesday morning on Big Island Now and Kaua‘i Now.