Photo Credit: Jason Weingardt

West Kaua’i

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 70 above 3000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 56 above 3000 feet. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

New Years Day: Partly sunny early in the morning, then isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 70 above 3000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Kaua’i

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 79 to 85. Light winds becoming southeast around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows around 65. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

New Years Day: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 78 to 84. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kaua’i Mountains

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated light showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 71 to 77 in the valleys to around 64 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 59 to 64 in the valleys to around 54 above 4000 feet. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

New Years Day: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 69 to 76 in the valleys to around 62 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

North Kaua’i

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated light showers in the morning. Highs 73 to 81. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 59 to 69. North winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

New Years Day: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 72 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

East Kaua’i

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated light showers in the morning. Highs 73 to 82. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 59 to 71. North winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

New Years Day: Partly sunny. Isolated showers early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 70 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Trade winds will weaken and veer southeasterly tonight through Sunday as a front approaches from the northwest. Breezy trades will return by Monday and persist through at least the first half of the week.

Discussion

The islands reside within a diffuse and rather nondescript MSLP pattern supportive of light background winds and land breezes over each island at press time. Meanwhile, high stability characterized by a strong inversion around 5kft is keeping a firm lid on sparse shower activity that has developed along some of these land breeze boundaries as they hug coastal areas early this morning. This pattern will remain in place through today in maintainence of continued dry conditions with a few interior clouds developing along afternoon sea breeze boundaries. A progressive mid-latitude ridge presently centered near the Dateline will foster the return of locally breezy trades as early as tonight to go along with a subsequent return to isolated-scattered windward and mauka showers. Hostile antecedant conditions will ensure rainfall amounts remain on the lighter side. Aside from the return to trade winds, little change is expected through mid-week as reinforcing subsidence maintains a shallow and strong inversion in favor of continued drier- than-normal conditions.
Extended guidance is keying in on a closed low that is modeled to develop over or near the Hawaiian Islands during the second half of this week. Subsequent veering and weakening of winds from Thursday into the weekend may aid the development of a less stable sea breeze pattern to close out the week.

Aviation

Light and variable winds will continue across the Hawaii Region before turning northerly from afternoon to evening. Stable atmospheric conditions will limit shower activity.
No AIRMETs in effect and none are expected.

Marine

The trade winds will ease up and become disrupted today as a front approaches from the northwest. The front will stall out northwest of Kauai tonight and Monday, with a new high then building north of the islands allowing the trades to return and strengthen. The trades could reach Small Craft Advisory levels for some of the windier zones around Maui and the Big Island late Monday, with SCA winds expanding to much of the marine area Monday night and Tuesday. The low level flow will shift east-southeast Wednesday through late next week, keeping fresh to strong trades in place over the eastern end of the state, while island sheltering effects drop winds into the light to moderate range over a good chunk of the western waters.
The current long-period northwest swell will peak at High Surf Warning levels today, then decline tonight and Monday. A High Surf Warning remains in effect for most north and west facing shores of the smaller islands, and a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for much of the marine area exposed to this swell through 6 AM Monday. A reinforcing long-period north-northwest swell will arrive Tuesday, possibly allowing north shore surf to reach advisory levels late Tuesday and Tuesday night, before declining on Wednesday. A series of long-period northwest swell reinforcements could then build north shore surf back close to advisory levels Friday before declining next weekend.
South shore surf will remain close to seasonal levels during the next 7 days. East shore surf will remain small through Monday, then build to near or slightly above normal levels Tuesday into next weekend as trade winds strengthen over and upstream of the island chain.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Monday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov