Photo Credit: Brendan Stephen

West Kaua’i

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 72 above 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 71 to 76 near the shore to around 62 above 3000 feet. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 72 above 3000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

South Kaua’i

Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 81. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 69 to 75. West winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs around 81. Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaua’i Mountains

Today: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 78 in the valleys to around 62 above 4000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 62 to 68 in the valleys to around 56 above 4000 feet. Light winds becoming south up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 78 in the valleys to around 62 above 4000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Kaua’i

Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 84. South winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 66 to 75. South winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 84. South winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Kaua’i

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. Southwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 63 to 76. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light southerly winds with mostly dry conditions are here to stay for much of the state through the weekend. The best chance for showers will remain over and around Kauai. High clouds associated with a lingering frontal boundary nearby to the north along with an approaching upper disturbance may lead to periods of cloudy conditions, especially over the western end of the state. Rain chances may increase early next week as deep low pressure develops to the west.

Discussion

The persistent pattern featuring a stationary frontal boundary lingering nearby to the north and a ridge meandering over the islands will keep the light southerly flow in place through the weekend. With the deep moisture axis north of the area over and around the frontal boundary, expect showers to remain limited this weekend. Any showers that do form will favor interior/south and southwest facing slopes through the afternoons where sea breezes form – best chance for accumulations being over the western end of the state closer to the deep moisture axis and better instability.
For next week, some differences emerge within the guidance with some depicting a return of breezy trades while other solutions keep the islands in more of a hybrid east-southeast flow. These differences are in response to various positions in where the predicted deep low pressure sets up to the west. A position farther west would favor a return of trades, while a position closer to the islands would translate to a southeast flow setting up. A blend of the available sources of guidance does support a hybrid like pattern with east-southeast flow along with increasing moisture expanding eastward across the state Monday through midweek.

Aviation

High pressure at both the surface and aloft will insure clear, dry weather for most of the state. Bands of mid and high level clouds streaming out of the west are associated with a cold front passing northwest of the state. Little or no precipitation is associated with these bands, but isolated light showers may move into Kauai later today.
A weak inversion around 03 kft is acting to trap moisture in the near surface layer. Isolated MVFR ceilings due to marine stratus are possible statewide, especially in the late night and morning hours. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail all areas.

Marine

A high pressure surface ridge over the Hawaiian Islands and a weakening stationary front northwest of Kauai will keep mostly stable weather conditions and light to gentle southerly winds in the forecast through the weekend. Shower activity will begin to increase over the islands of Kauai and Oahu early next week as a low pressure system develops northwest of the state.
Seas will remain on the small side for all Hawaiian waters with minimal swell energy expected in the short term. By Sunday morning a medium period north (340-360) swell will build into the islands, boosting surf heights along north facing shores, peaking on Monday. Two additional swells arrive by Wednesday with another small medium period north (350-010) swell and a small long period northwest (320-330) swell building into the region. This mixed swell energy will boost surf heights along exposed north and west facing shores from Wednesday into Friday.
South shores will also see the forerunners of a small long period swell arrive by Monday, producing head high surf by Tuesday, and then slowly fade into Wednesday.
East swell energy will get into the action from Wednesday onward building surf heights along east facing shores as a large east to west 15 to 25 kt fetch area sets up just east of the island chain.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov