West Kaua’i

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 86 to 92 near the shore to around 79 above 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 75 near the shore to around 65 above 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 85 to 91 near the shore to around 78 above 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Kaua’i

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 90. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 71 to 77. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 89. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kaua’i Mountains

Today: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 84 in the valleys to around 75 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 70 in the valleys to around 62 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83 in the valleys to around 74 above 4000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

North Kaua’i

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 73 to 89. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 67 to 76. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 73 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Kaua’i

Today: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 67 to 77. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 86. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A plume of moisture remains over the eastern end of the state, bringing clouds and showers to the Big Island. Trade winds are starting to filter back into the state, and with the returning trades, expect a return to a more typical trade wind pattern over the next couple of days.

Discussion

Have made some changes to the grids to nudge the forecast to the latest solution of the GFS. No significant changes to the forecast.
Satelite derived precipitable water (PW) continues to show elevated values over the southern end of the state. The overnight Hilo sounding continues to show PW values over 2 inches, which is well above normal. A trough near Oahu this morning continues to move to the west. As the trough moves away, we can expect trade winds to slowly build in from east to west. Moisture will linger, but the focus of showers should return to more typical windward sides of the islands. Expect the trade wind pattern to persist into next week.
An upper level low is expected to remain far to the northeast of the state heading into the weekend and then lift northward. Dewpoints remain in the low 70s across the state, and when combined with the light winds, it makes it feel warm and muggy. Models suggest dewpoints will drop back into the upper 60s Friday night, providing some relief from the muggy conditions.

Aviation

The trade winds have set up, which combined with moisture being advected in has allowed for showers to continue this morning. Satellite shows a mix of clear skies to mostly cloudy skies because of this, with ceilings generally ranging from VFR to MVFR. The lower ceilings, and at times visibility, are due to the showers and clouds. Expect these conditions to continue over the until around sunrise or so, with drier air gradually working into the region later in the day.
AIRMET Sierra remains for the Big Island, Maui, Lanai, and Molokai through at least 10Z. Showers should wrap up between 12-15Z for most sites, with the forecast showing drier trade wind conditions for the late morning and afternoon.
For sites PMDY and NSTU, the forecast shows an increase in northeasterly to easterly winds respectively between 18-21Z. Continued the trend based on the GFS, with the stronger winds lingering later in the day for PMDY. Will need to continue to monitor observations and model today, and adjusted accordingly.

Marine

Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will gradually return from east to west across the island chain today and then persist into the weekend.
The current moderate mid-period south swell will continue to steadily decline over the next few days with below average surf expected by the weekend.
Surf along east facing shores will gradually decrease and will remain near seasonal averages through Saturday due to east and northeast swells generated by former tropical cyclones. Surf along north facing shores continues to receive a small bump due to Lowell. This short-period northwest swell will quickly fade, allowing surf to become tiny along north facing shores today as Lowell weakens and tracks westward away from the islands.

Fire weather

Fire weather risk will remain low the next several days due light winds and lingering moisture. Expect a slight chance of thunderstorms over the Big Island this afternoon. Temperature inversion heights are expected to remain elevated or weak.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov