West Kaua’i

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 68 above 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 59 above 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 69 above 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Kaua’i

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 74 to 81. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 68. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 81. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kaua’i Mountains

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 69 to 76 in the valleys to around 61 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 60 to 67 in the valleys to around 57 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 77 in the valleys to around 61 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

North Kaua’i

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 72 to 81. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 70. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Kaua’i

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the morning. Highs 68 to 79. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 72. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs 68 to 78. East winds 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Issued at 927 AM HST Sat Feb 14 2026
Trade winds will strengthen Sunday into Monday, then persist through the rest of the week, bringing periods of showers to the usual windward and mauka locations.

Short term update

Issued at 927 AM HST Sat Feb 14 2026
Moderate to breezy trade winds will persist today, with windward and mauka shower activity gradually decreasing later this morning into the afternoon. Trades are expected to strengthen heading into tomorrow as an area of strong high pressure well north of the state drifts south-southeastward, increasing the local pressure gradient. Model guidance also shows a band of moisture–currently seen on satellite imagery roughly 500 miles to the east–arriving tomorrow on the strengthening trade wind flow. This will likely lead to increased windward and mauka clouds and showers, along with the potential for stronger wind gusts mixing down in showers.
Taken together, the strengthening pressure gradient and the potential for enhanced gusts within showers bring the main short- term question into focus: will winds become strong enough to reach Wind Advisory criteria tomorrow? At this time, high-resolution model guidance favors the typically windier areas of Maui County and the Big Island, and this potential will be evaluated further ahead of the routine afternoon forecast update.
The overall forecast remains on track, and no changes were made with this mornings update. Please refer to the earlier discussion for additional details on the forecast heading into next week.

Discussion

Issued at 319 AM HST Sat Feb 14 2026
Isolated showers are ongoing across most windward and mauka areas this morning. A trough is bringing in some upper level clouds from the south as evident on satellite imagery. Trade winds will continue through the weekend, and strengthen through Sunday. This should continue the windward and mauka showers that are typical in a trade wind regime. Winds will strengthen slightly and continue well into next week. An upper level trough approaching from the northwest around midweek appears strong enough to turn our surface winds to out of the southeast Tuesday night. Though is it forecast to weaken as it swings through the state it should be enough to keep our winds out of the southeast through the forecast period.

Aviation

Issued at 927 AM HST Sat Feb 14 2026
Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will prevail across the islands through the weekend and well into next week. Showers and occasional low clouds embedded within the trade wind flow will generally favor north through east sections of the islands throughout this period. While VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail at most locations today, a band of moisture moving into the state from the east early this morning is expected to increase windward and mountain shower activity, particularly over the eastern end of the state. Looking ahead, guidance continues to show an additional, more robust, band of showers moving into the islands on Sunday. This will likely lead to an increase in MVFR conditions across windward and mountain locations for most islands.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence downwind of island terrain. These conditions are expected to continue into the foreseeable future, as the breezy to strong trades will persist for several days. AIRMET Tango is also in effect for moderate turbulence between FL290 and FL380. This turbulence is expected to diminish by this afternoon.
Additionally, AIRMET Sierra has been issued this morning for mountain obscuration along north through east sections of Maui Oahu, and Molokai. AIRMET Sierra is also in effect for the Big Island from Upolu Point to Cape Kumukahi to Apua Point.&&
.MARINE… Issued at 927 AM HST Sat Feb 14 2026
Strong high pressure far north of the state will continue to produce rough conditions into next week. Trade winds are expected to strengthen through Sunday, where we could see gales over the windier waters and channels around Maui County. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended for all coastal water due to a combination of winds and seas through Sunday night. A Gale Watch may be needed for the Alenuihaha Channel and Pailolo Channel on Sunday, especially in the afternoon into Sunday night. Strong to near gale force trade winds are expected to persist through at least the middle of next week.
The current small medium period northwest to north-northwest swell will hold throughout the morning then steadily decline this evening through Sunday. Minimal energy is expected from the northwest during the first half of next week, although select exposures should see some wind swell. Surf along east facing shores will continue to build over all waters this weekend and early next week due to the persistent strong trades locally and upstream of the islands. Surf heights look to stay just below High Surf Advisory today but should reach advisory thresholds on Sunday. Surf along south shores remains small with some background trade wind swell for select exposures through the forecast period.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters, Big Island Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Kauai Channel, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Maui County Leeward Waters, Maui County Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Oahu Windward Waters, Pailolo Channel.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov