West Kaua’i

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Haze. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 59 above 3000 feet. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then showers likely early in the afternoon. Showers late in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 68 above 3000 feet. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Showers early in the evening, then scattered showers late in the evening. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 63 near the shore to around 53 above 3000 feet. Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

South Kaua’i

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows around 68. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Monday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers until late afternoon, then showers late in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Breezy. Showers early in the evening, then scattered showers in the late evening and early morning. Isolated showers early in the morning. Lows around 61. West winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Kaua’i Mountains

Tonight: Partly cloudy early in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Haze. Lows 62 to 67 in the valleys to around 56 above 4000 feet. Southwest winds up to 25 mph. Gusts up to 45 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Scattered showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 81 in the valleys to around 62 above 4000 feet. Southwest winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Showers early in the evening, then scattered showers in the late evening and early morning. Isolated showers early in the morning. Lows 56 to 61 in the valleys to around 49 above 4000 feet. West winds 10 to 25 mph shifting to the northwest after midnight. Chance of rain 90 percent.

North Kaua’i

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Haze. Lows 62 to 69. South winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Southwest winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday Night: Breezy. Cloudy with showers early in the evening, then partly cloudy with scattered showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 56 to 65. West winds 10 to 20 mph shifting to the northwest up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 90 percent.

East Kaua’i

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows 63 to 71. Southwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Windy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 82. Southwest winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely early in the evening, then scattered showers in the late evening and early morning. Isolated showers early in the morning. Lows 56 to 65. West winds up to 25 mph shifting to the northwest up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A cold front will march eastward down the island chain from Monday afternoon through Tuesday, before stalling out and diminishing near the Big Island late Tuesday. Southwesterly winds will gradually strengthen tonight through Monday with breezy to locally strong southwest winds expected by Monday afternoon. Northwesterly winds with cool and dry conditions will follow behind the frontal passage. A stronger weather disturbance could impact the state late Friday into next weekend with heavy rain and thunderstorms.

Discussion

Issued at 355 PM HST Sun Feb 1 2026
Starting tonight, a cold front approaching the state from the northwest will cause southwesterly winds to gradually increase into Monday with breezy to strong (15 to 25 mph) southwesterly winds expected across the state by Monday afternoon. Wind gusts of 40 mph will be possible especially areas downwind of the mountain ranges. One area that could see stronger wind gusts and meet the Wind Advisory criteria will be over windward Oahu. Latest High Res models have trended stronger with the 850mb winds and is now showing anywhere from 30-40 knots at 850mb. With an inversion expected a little above the ridge tops, this should provide a favorable setup for gusty downslope winds with wind gusts of 50 mph possible Monday afternoon through the evening. Elsewhere across the state, we could see wind gusts approach the Wind Advisory threshold, but at this time the best chance seems to be over typical windward areas of Oahu.
As far as rainfall, prefrontal showers will continue to increase tonight into Monday, which should bring some passing showers focused over our typical leeward areas. The main band of moisture will be along the frontal boundary and will be short-lived with a brief period of moderate rain possible. The threat for heavy rain will be minimal due to stable conditions aloft. The front should be moving through Kauai late Monday afternoon into the evening, over Oahu on Monday night, and over Maui County Tuesday morning. The front should then dissipate around the Big Island Tuesday afternoon and evening. Behind the front, we should see cool and dry conditions with moderate northwesterly winds. Dewpoints will get down into the 50s behind the front, so Tuesday and Tuesday night should feel quite cool.
Over on the summits of Haleakala and the Big Island, upper level winds will increase Monday night and will likely reach Wind Advisory thresholds for the summits of Big Island and Haleakala. No wintry precipitation is expected with the frontal boundary due to the shallow nature of the front.
After the frontal passage, we should see fair weather conditions persist for a few days due to a surface ridge of high pressure over the state. Light winds with clear mornings and partly cloudy afternoons are expected Wednesday and Thursday.
Long range models are in pretty good agreement with an upper level trough approaching the state next weekend. At the surface, we should see a cold front approach the state late Friday into Saturday. While details still remain uncertain at this point, both the operational GFS and ECMWF and its AI models show some type of upper level cut off low developing over the state or southwest of the state. Depending on where this low develops, we could see a complex weather pattern next weekend with the threat of heavy rain and thunderstorms.

Aviation

Issued at 355 PM HST Sun Feb 1 2026
Mostly VFR with isolated MVFR in low clouds and showers through early evening, then VFR overnight. Southwest low-level flow has developed (altered locally by terrain, of course). This flow will strengthen through the night and become even stronger Monday afternoon. Cloud coverage and shower trends will increase Monday from west to east as a cold front approaches the islands. The cold front is forecast to reach PHLI around 6 PM HST, bringing gusty NW winds and showers.
No AIRMETs in effect and none are expected.

Marine

Issued at 355 PM HST Sun Feb 1 2026
A surface ridge will continue to drift southward over the islands today, leading to gentle to moderate south to southwest winds. Southwest winds will become fresh to strong late tonight and Monday as a front approaches. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been issued for most waters west of the Big Island and will be in effect from midnight HST tonight through Monday night. The front will move down the island chain Monday night and Tuesday, bringing gusty winds and heavy showers. Northwest winds behind the front will diminish and shift out of the east on Wednesday, followed by a return to southerly winds Thursday. Another front will likely reach the state late Friday or Saturday.
The current west-northwest swell will continue to decline through Monday, with another round of extra-large surf due Tuesday. Surf along north and west facing shores will diminish to small heights by Monday morning, followed by an increase during the afternoon as forerunners of the next northwest swell arrive. The next northwest swell (310 to 325 degrees) will build rapidly Monday night and peak Tuesday and Wednesday as overlapping pulses pass through Hawaiian waters. Surf along most north and west facing shores will easily exceed High Surf Warning levels, with combined seas exceeding the 10 foot SCA threshold in many areas. The swell will decline Thursday and Friday, with surf falling below High Surf Advisory levels Thursday night. Another large swell is possible late Friday and Saturday.
Surf along east and south facing shores will remain small through much of the week, aside from a brief boost along south facing shores with the increase in southwest winds as the front approaches on Monday. An increase is possible along east shores next weekend.
A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect through midday Monday, as peak monthly tides coincide with higher than predicted ocean levels. Expect minor flooding of low-lying coastal infrastructure as well as some some beach erosion during the peak high tide between midnight and sunrise Monday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM HST Tuesday for Alenuihaha Channel, Kaiwi Channel, Kauai Channel, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Maui County Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Oahu Windward Waters, Pailolo Channel.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov