Could today be the day the next phase of lava fountaining begins in Kīlauea’s summit eruption?

The glow is strong inside the vents at Kīlauea as the Big Island volcano remains on pause after a spectacular display of power and beauty during the most recent fountaining episode of the ongoing eruption in Halemaʻumaʻu Crater.

It’s been 7 days, a whole week, since the last eruptive activity ended, which seems to be just the right amount of time lately for Kīlauea to recharge before again sending molten rock skyrocketing into the air and flowing onto the crater floor.

Hawaiian Volcano Observatory says new fountains could erupt before the end of this week. There could even be another eruptive episode happening as you’re reading this.

Yeah, right now.

The average pause time between fountaining phases since Episode 7 on Jan. 27-28 has been about 6 days.

Degassing is ongoing at the vents where the eruption is focused on the southwest side of the crater. Hawaiian Volcano Observatory reported Tuesday that glow noticeably increased overnight Monday, indicating magma continues to rise.

However, summit inflation also continued slowing Monday.

The tiltmeter at Uēkahuna bluff located in the summit area has recorded just fewer than 11 microradians of inflationary tilt since the end of Episode 13 last week. The Uēkahuna tiltmeter, however, did have to be reset March 15, which created a small offset in data.

Seismic tremor decreased significantly at the end of Episode 13, but remains above background level. Two small earthquakes were recorded in the summit region between Monday and Tuesday mornings.

Hawaiian Volcano Observatory scientists for the past couple of months have analyzed inflationary tilt patterns between eruptive phases to determine a “window of probability” for when a new episode could begin.

Deflation reached 13 microradians during Episode 13 and the volcano had recovered just fewer than 11 microradians as of Tuesday morning.

Based on current inflation rates, estimates suggest a new eruptive episode would most likely begin sometime between today (March 19) and Friday.

If inflation continues to slow, as it was Monday, the time to reach a possible Episode 14 could increase.

Meanwhile, the past 7 episodes of the eruption within Kaluapele, the volcano’s summit caldera — while fantastic — have been relatively quick, only lasting on average about 18 hours.

The longest was Episode 12 from 7:30 a.m. March 4 to 10:37 a.m. March 5 for a total of about 27 hours. Episodes 10, 11 and 13 were the shortest since then, each lasting about 13 hours.

Episode 13 from 2:36 a.m. to 3:13 p.m. March 11 showed off with dual lava geysers that at times reached as tall as 600 feet high and produced lava flows that covered 60% of the crater floor.

The eruption has attracted hundreds of thousands of people to Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park, where Kīlauea’s caldera is located.

In December 2024 alone, National Park Service data show the national park welcomed 169,439 visitors compared with 135,034 during the same month the previous year. That’s an increase of 25%, which Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park spokeswoman Jessica Ferracane said is a pretty typical spike coinciding with an eruption.

That’s wild to think about when the eruption started in the early morning hours of Dec. 23, 2024, with just about a week and a half left in the month.

Each of the 13 episodes so far has been unique, and they’ve all mesmerized the masses, many of whom also now wait with bated breath for when the next new episode will begin.

“It is certainly never the same day twice,” said Ferracane in January about the ongoing summit eruption. “And this eruption did not have the hundreds of preceding earthquakes like previous summit eruptions. Pele definitely keeps us on our toes!”

Even she, her fellow park staff and their partners are still thrilled when a new eruptive episode in the ongoing summit eruption starts.

“Kīlauea and Mauna Loa never get old, even when they are not erupting,” Ferracane said. “Eruptions add to fascination sure, but many park staff and volunteers and our partners hold a deep, spiritual kuleana to the volcanoes and the vastly different landscapes that define Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park.”

She said the dual fountaining has been truly beautifuly and awe-inspiring, and something not observed in every summit eruption of the volcano.

The past several episodes have been farely short, so don’t wait to see the next one in person. Ferracane and park staff only ask that you keep a few things in mind when and before you arrive.

• Give nēnē their space. It is still breeding season for nēnē, the Hawaiian goose, so there could be goslings in the park. Drive slowly, keep your distance — at least 60 feet or 4 car lengths away — and never feed them.
• Visit with reverence. Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park, and specifcally the Kīlauea summit area, is a deeply significant wahi pana, or legendary place, for Native Hawaiians. Be awed by the cultural prowess of erupting, fountaining lava of Halemaʻumaʻu, home to Pele, the Hawaiian goddess of the volcano. Listen to the manu, or birds, singing and even flying near the eruption.
• Always make the park website your first stop. The eruption viewing page has important safety information, the best viewing spots, distances to lava from overlooks and more. It is a tremendous resource.

It’s also good to “know before you go,” Ferracane said.

Despite the eruption being confined in the park, hazards still exist, including vog — the visible haze created when sulfur dioxide from the volcano reacts in the atmosphere to produce volcanic smog that can affect communities far downwind from the summit.

A sulfur dioxide emission rate of 1,500 tonnes per day was measured March 13, which is a typical rate during eruption pauses.

Pele’s hair — strands of volcanic glass often produced by lava fountaining — also can be carried by the wind into the park and even farther, depending on wind conditions.

Additional hazards such as other volcanic fragments and even lava bombs, also exist.

The park also is still rebuilding and dusting off after the massive 2018 Kīlauea summit collapse and lower East Rift Zone eruption. Jaggar Museum is gone and Uēkahuna bluff will eventually reopen in a more natural state.

Kīlauea Visitor Center is now closed for at least 18 months for renovations, so park rangers, limited visitor services and the park store were relocated to a temporary Welcome Center at Kīlauea Military Camp.

Ferracane said visitation has tapered off somewhat as eruptive episodes have shortened, which makes sense since it’s more difficult to plan a trip around a time frame of 13 hours vs. the 8 and a half days of Episode 3 from Dec. 26, 2024, to Jan. 3, which is the longest phase so far.

But with the ongoing eruption at the summit and not migrating anywhere, it’s a much more simple process to get there to view, if you can in time.

“When eruptions are confined to the summit, the viewing is easy for almost anyone — short walks to overlooks vs. long hikes to, say, a lava flow going into the ocean like we saw with Puʻuʻōʻō,” Ferracane said. “People really appreciate that, especially if they are in a wheelchair and cannot travel long distances from their vehicles.”

Her personal favorite time and place to view eruptive episodes are before sunrise and from the Keanakākoʻi side, or east, of Halemaʻumaʻu Crater.

Be prepared to jump in the car and go if you want to catch the next episode, too.

The livestream of the crater showed what looked like what could have been an ooze out of lava shining through the darkness on the crater floor in front of the vents at about 2 a.m. today.

And both vents were glowing even more brightly than late Tuesday night.

Hawaiian Volcano Observatory continues to closely monitor Kīlauea and is in constant contact with Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park and Hawai‘i County Civil Defense about eruptive activity and hazards.

Kīlauea’s Volcano Alert Level remains at Watch and its Aviation Color Code at Orange. All eruptive activity remains confined within Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park.

No significant activity has been noted along Kīlauea’s East Rift Zone or Southwest Rift Zone.

Visit the Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park website for visitor information.