Photo Credit: Braden Jarvis

West Kaua’i

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 72 above 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 65 to 70 near the shore to around 58 above 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 73 above 3000 feet. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

South Kaua’i

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 86. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 68. Light winds becoming northeast around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 86. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaua’i Mountains

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 79 in the valleys to around 64 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 59 to 67 in the valleys to around 56 above 4000 feet. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 80 in the valleys to around 64 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

North Kaua’i

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 73 to 84. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 61 to 70. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 84. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

East Kaua’i

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 72 to 84. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 61 to 72. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 72 to 84. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

As clouds and showers decrease this morning, light to moderate easterly trades will return. Expect showers to favor windward and mauka areas. Trade winds will increase next week as high pressure strengthens to our north.

Discussion

A surface trough between Oahu and Kauai last night has dissipated across local waters. Overall shower activity has declined over the past 12 hours, and current radar and satellite loops show scattered low clouds to clear skies across most areas this morning. Rainfall has become quite sparse. Patchy broken low clouds are noted across waters upwind from Maui and the Big Island.
Models show that light to locally moderate easterly trade winds will fill in across the state through today and persist through the weekend. That said, winds will likely remain light enough across the state to allow development of localized sea breezes during the afternoon. This hybrid pattern of redeveloping trades and sea breezes will support isolated to scattered showers across windward and mauka areas this morning and tonight with additional isolated showers over island interiors in the afternoon. Strengthening trades on Sunday may hinder sea breeze development, but they may still occur across sheltered leeward areas.
Another front will approach from the northwest today through Sunday. Models continue to show its tail end dissipating before it reaches the state, but remnant moisture will move in on the strengthening trades early next week as high pressure strengthens to the north. These breezy to strong trades will persist through the week and into next weekend. As pockets of moisture ride in on the trades, periodic showers will favor windward and mauka areas.

Aviation

Expect mostly dry and stable conditions across the islands today with a weak trough to the northeast and an incoming front to the northwest. Light winds across the region will allow local sea breezes to develop across sheltered locations in the afternoon with land breezes developing overnight. Will see predominately VFR conditions today with isolated showers and low clouds. The exception will be Kauai which will see areas of MVFR continue through the morning hours as residual moisture lingers over the island. AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for tempo mountain obscuration across windward Kauai, with conditions improving later this morning.
Will see a return of moderate to breezy trade wind conditions by early next week.

Marine

Trade winds will show weakening trends through Sunday morning with land and sea breeze areas expanding over the near shore waters of each island. A strong high pressure system building in north of the state will cause trade wind speeds to strengthen to moderate levels by Sunday afternoon, then becoming fresh to strong trade winds from Monday night through the end of next week.
Another northwest (330 deg) swell will move through island waters later today keeping surf heights elevated along exposed north and west facing shores. The next northwest swell will move into the Hawaii region from Monday into Tuesday. The High Surf Advisory (HSA) will continue through this afternoon as the next swell will rapidly move into the islands and increase surf heights along exposed north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and north facing shores of Maui. Surf heights will likely decline with surf heights falling below HSA levels by tonight.
Elsewhere, a small south swell will continue through this weekend, and then diminish early next week.

Fire weather

Critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated. Wind speeds will remain far below that needed for critical fire danger. Trade winds will strengthen next week, but relative humidity values will be high enough to continue to preclude any critical fire weather conditions.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Windward Haleakala.

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