Photo Credit: Sebastien Gabriel

West Kaua’i

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 84 to 89 near the shore to around 74 above 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 69 to 74 near the shore to around 62 above 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 87 near the shore to around 75 above 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

South Kaua’i

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers early in the morning. Highs 79 to 87. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 74. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers early in the morning. Highs 80 to 88. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaua’i Mountains

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers early in the morning, then isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 72 to 82 in the valleys to around 64 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 70 in the valleys to around 59 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers early in the morning, then isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 73 to 83 in the valleys to around 65 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

North Kaua’i

Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 86. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 73. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 88. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Kaua’i

Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 71 to 84. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 77. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs 72 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds are expected to persist through the week, with showers favoring windward and mauka locations as areas of moisture move through. The trade winds are forecast to become strong and gusty starting around Wednesday and lasting into the weekend.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement, showing breezy easterly trades continuing as deep layer ridging remains positioned to the north. Despite the stable conditions in place with a strong subsidence inversion, a shallow low cloud band in the area will support scattered windward showers this morning, particularly for the smaller islands. Rainfall accumulations will remain on the light side, with very little reaching leeward sections. This cloud band will gradually diminish and shift west of the area later today through Tuesday as drier air fills in.
Confidence in the trades becoming strong and gusty starting around Wednesday and lasting into the weekend is increasing, as strong high pressure builds to the north in the wake of a cold front. The tail end of this front could settle southward into the area Friday through Saturday. The increase in moisture, combined with lowering upper heights, could enhance shower activity over windward areas if this scenario materializes.

Aviation

Breezy trades will continue for the next several days. Low cigs and SHRA should mainly be focused over windward and mauka areas. Isol spillover to lee areas is possible. MVFR conds can be expected in heavier SHRA, but otherwise VFR should prevail.
AIRMET Tango for mod low-level turb remains in effect over and downwind of all island terrain.

Marine

A high pressure system north of the Hawaiian Islands will maintain fresh to locally strong E trade winds through Tuesday. The high will then drift eastward through Tuesday and another stronger high pressure system will build in N of the islands by Wednesday. Trade wind speeds will strengthen to near gale levels from Wednesday onward into the weekend. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) was expanded this morning to include additional coastal waters around Oahu and Maui, these SCA conditions will continue to expand over the next two days to eventually include all Hawaiian Coastal Waters from Wednesday onward.
The next moderate NW (320 degree) swell is passing through the offshore buoys 50001 and 51001. This swell will continue to build into Hawaiian waters through the morning hours, peaking near advisory levels for Kauai and Oahu by this evening. This swell will be followed by a slightly larger NW (320 degree) swell filling in from late Tuesday into Wednesday, which should produce advisory level surf along exposed N and W facing shores.
Surf along E facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the week due to the breezy trade winds. Long range models are showing a significant increase of wind waves Wednesday through the end of the week due to a large fetch of strong trade winds setting up over and upstream of the state. This will lead to surf heights building and exceeding advisory thresholds along E facing shores during its peak.
Surf along S facing shores will remain small and near the seasonal average through the middle of this week. Mainly background S swell pulses linger in the longer range forecast.
Also with the peak monthly tides coming up towards end of this week (Nov 14th to Nov 18th) we could see coastal inundation impacts during the early morning high tide periods for vulnerable coastal areas on all islands. The large wind waves combined with the peak monthly tides could cause greater impacts along eastern shores.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov