Photo Credit: Brendan Stephen

West Kaua’i

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to around 76 above 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 61 above 3000 feet. East winds around 10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to around 76 above 3000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Kaua’i

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 73. Northeast winds around 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 88. East winds around 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaua’i Mountains

Today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 74 to 85 in the valleys to around 66 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 71 in the valleys to around 59 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 75 to 85 in the valleys to around 66 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

North Kaua’i

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 87. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 72. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 87. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

East Kaua’i

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 74 to 86. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 76. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 86. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Expect moderate trades along with periodic showers across windward and mauka areas through the weekend. Trade winds will briefly strengthen next week before settling back down toward next weekend.

Discussion

Weak surface troughing across the western islands continues to provide a narrow corridor of enhanced showers mainly over waters northeast of Oahu and Kauai this morning. With no meaningful upper support, surface troughing will advance westward and move out of impact range through today. An upper low southwest of the islands is far enough away to not be a factor in island weather other than pushing abundant high clouds across area skies through today. Stronger upper southwesterlies will shift west of the area tonight, resulting in less high cloud coverage by Saturday.
Models show moderate trades will continue through at least this weekend as the core of the trade wind belt remains suppressed south of the islands, thanks to a weakened ridge north of the islands. Models also show potential for the return of breezy trades by the middle of next week. However, any return of stronger trades is likely to be brief as troughing once again hinders the strength of the subtropical ridge.

Aviation

Moderate trades will continue over the next couple of days. Clouds and isolated to scattered showers will typically favor windward and mountain areas, particularly through the overnight, and early morning hours. This will bring brief MVFR conditions in scattered showers. In this lighter wind pattern, sea breezes will also bring afternoon cloud build ups and isolated showers to select leeward interior areas that will then clear out overnight with land breezes. Overall, besides in brief isolated showers, VFR conditions should prevail across the island chain.
AIRMET Tango has been cancelled as the turbulence has weakened and moved to the west of the state. No AIRMETs are currently in effect and none are expected through today.

Marine

A series of cold fronts passing across the North Pacific will disrupt surface high pressure situated north of the islands. This will produce a weaker upstream pressure gradient and result in gentle trades through Saturday. High pressure will reestablish itself over the eastern Pacific early next week and re-tighten the gradient back across the area. Thus, trades will strengthen back to moderate to locally fresh magnitudes by Monday. Trades may become locally strong and initiate Small Craft Advisories within eastern island bays and channels by next Tuesday. Trades may drop off a touch late next week as the high northeast of the state moves southeast and slackens the central Pacific pressure gradient.
The slowly fading small, medium period northwest to north swell (340 degree) moving around the islands will generally hold waist to head high surf heights through the day. A reinforcing bump in north shore surf is possible later tonight or tomorrow morning as a small short to medium period north swell (350-360 degree) fills into the region. However, the next significant north swell (350 degree) that could produce advisory-level surf along north-facing shores is scheduled to arrive Sunday night or early Monday. This swell will likely peak Monday evening and then slowly decline through the middle of next week.
Nearshore buoys have confirmed that a small, long period south swell (180 degree) reinforcement has arrived early this morning. This will maintain near waist high south-facing shore surf the next couple of days. Surf along west-facing shores will remain elevated as these shores will continue to be influenced by both north and south swell wrap. East-facing shore wind wave chop will remain relatively small under this weaker trade wind regime.
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES… None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov