Photo Credit: Braden Jarvis

West Kaua’i

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 88 near the shore to around 77 above 3000 feet. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 60 above 3000 feet. East winds around 10 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs 86 to 91 near the shore to around 77 above 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

South Kaua’i

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows around 72. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 82 to 89. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaua’i Mountains

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 74 to 84 in the valleys to around 67 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 69 in the valleys to around 58 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 84 in the valleys to around 67 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

North Kaua’i

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 89. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 73. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 77 to 89. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Kaua’i

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 86. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 75. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 86. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A stable, moderate trade wind pattern will prevail through Monday with mainly light showers focused over the windward and mountain areas. Increasing trade winds, and slightly wetter conditions, are possible during the middle of the week, with breezy trades continuing into next weekend.

Discussion

No significant changes to the forecast with the morning package. In the short term the main change for today was a small uptick in showers for the windward side of the Big Island. Other changes in the later periods of the forecast were to nudge the forecast to the latest National Blend of Models as we head into next weekend.
With a ridge building to the north of the islands, expect trades to prevail through the week. The pressure gradient will tighten Monday and Tuesday as the ridge strengthens, and then another uptick is possible later in the week into the weekend.
A stable airmass remains overhead, limiting shower activity and amounts into Monday. The mid level ridge will begin to lift northward Monday and Tuesday, allowing some additional shower activity to spread over the islands. The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement with an uptick in shower activity Tuesday/Wednesday. During the second half of the week, the GFS remains a bit wetter than the ECMWF. The current forecast leans towards that slightly wetter pattern.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds are expected to continue through Monday. Brief periods of MVFR conditions with clouds and passing showers will be possible, mainly over windward and mauka areas. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected to prevail.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

Marine

High pressure far northeast of the state will keep gentle to locally fresh trade winds into Monday. The ridge to the north looks to strengthen over the next few days and bring back moderate to locally strong trade winds Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely go back up for the typical windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island.
Small surf will hold along south facing shores over the next few days as the current small south- southeast swell will hold today before a south- southwest swell will build in Monday and maintain small surf through the first half of next week. Into the long range, a moderate long period south southwest swell is expected towards the end of next week as a strong low in the southwest pacific continues to develop.
Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny to small as a northeast swell comes through before declining Monday. Surf along east facing shores will trend up Tuesday as trade winds strengthen across the region.
The combination of higher than normal water levels and afternoon spring tides are resulting in water levels running over half a foot above guidance around the Big Island and Maui. This will cause minor coastal flooding issues for both Big Island and Maui this afternoon during peak high tide.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov