Photo Credit: Braden Jarvis

West Kaua’i

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 86 to 91 near the shore to around 77 above 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 62 above 3000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 85 to 92 near the shore to around 77 above 3000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Kaua’i

Today: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 71 to 76. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 84 to 91. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kaua’i Mountains

Today: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 85 in the valleys to around 67 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 65 to 70 in the valleys to around 59 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 76 to 84 in the valleys to around 68 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

North Kaua’i

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 74. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

East Kaua’i

Today: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 87. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 77. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 76 to 88. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds are expected through tonight, with a slight decrease for the remainder of the week. Expect clouds and some passing showers to favor windward and mauka areas over the next few days, with a drier weather pattern by mid week.

Discussion

The forecast has been modified some this morning, trending towards the National Blend of Models (NBM) throughout the forecast period. Overall they are minor changes, with the general forecast philosophy remaining in place. High pressure remains to the far northwest of the state, with another high to the northeast. Remnant moisture from a dieing frontal system currently between the high pressure systems will likely introduce some showers over the upcoming weekend.
The overnight sounding from Hilo had precipitable water (PW) of 1.14, which is below normal, and Lihue had 1.36 which is near normal. This continues to match well with the CIMSS MIMIC satellite derived PW. This satellite derived PW shows the drier air moving into Maui County and the Big Island early this morning. and edging closer to the coastal waters to the east of Oahu. Kauai remains close to a band of moisture to the northwest which continues to move to the west.
Moderate to locally breezy trades are expected today, but a small downward trend is likely tonight and tomorrow as the high pressure system mentioned above moves to the east and weakens. Some sheltered areas could see some afternoon sea breezes as a result. As the drier air spreads across the islands over the next couple of days, rainfall totals are expected to be limited.
The remnants of the dieing front mentioned above are expected to ride in on the trades at the end of the week. As mentioned above, have trended the forecast to the NBM which results in an bit of an uptick in showers for the upcoming weekend.

Aviation

A broad area of high pressure north of the state will allow moderate trades to persist this morning through late today. Thus, isolated to scattered showers will mainly affect windward locations. Brief MVFR ceilings and visibility may occur with any of the heavier showers, but not expecting anything widespread. Some isolated showers make cross the terrain and affect leeward locations.

Marine

A surface high pressure system located far northwest of the islands will track eastward over the next few days to a position far to the northeast by mid-week. Trade wind speeds are expected to remain moderate to locally fresh, just below Small Craft Advisory levels through the week.
A small medium period northwest swell is expected to arrive late today through the middle of the week. A series of northwest swells are expected this week as another small medium period swell will keep surf heights steady Wednesday through Friday. Forecast guidance Friday into the weekend shows a moderate northwest medium to long period swell to impact north and west facing shores. Surf heights look to be just below High Surf Advisory criteria but intensity may change as the low in the far northwest pacific develops over the next few days.
Small medium to long period background surf along south facing shores is expected through Friday. Long range models suggest the potential for a moderate late season south swell by next weekend. Surf along east facing shores look to remain moderate and choppy due to the local trade winds.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov