Photo Credit: Sebastien Gabriel

West Kaua’i

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 73 above 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 60 above 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 74 above 3000 feet. Light winds becoming southwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Kaua’i

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 82. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 71. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaua’i Mountains

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 71 to 77 in the valleys to around 66 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 64 in the valleys to around 56 above 4000 feet. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 72 to 78 in the valleys to around 67 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

North Kaua’i

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 73 to 82. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 72. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 74 to 83. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

East Kaua’i

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 73 to 83. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 62 to 73. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 74 to 84. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A trough of low pressure west of Kauai will slowly shift west today, allowing a gradual return of moderate trade winds from east to west across the state. Rather dry conditions will prevail, with a few showers moving into windward areas this morning and developing over interior and leeward areas this afternoon. Drier than normal conditions and moderate trade winds should then prevail tonight through late next week, with mainly windward and mauka showers and very little shower activity reaching leeward communities.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a trough of low pressure is located west of Kauai, with a 1021 mb high around 1050 miles northwest of Kauai, and a southwest to northeast oriented ridge axis extending over the central islands. Light winds prevail over Kauai where land breezes are present, light trades remain in place over Oahu, while moderate trades prevail in the unsheltered sections of Maui County and the Big Island. Infrared satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy skies in most areas. Radar imagery shows a few showers moving into windward sections of Maui and the Big Island, a couple showers along the leeward Kohala coast, with very little shower activity over the rest of the state. Main short term focus revolves around rain chances and the returning trade winds.
The trough of low pressure will retrograde slowly westward today, allowing trade winds to strengthen to moderate levels from east to west across the state. Moderate trade winds should then prevail tonight through Tuesday with only minor fluctuations in strength from day to day. The trades should ease again around the middle to latter part of next week as a new front approaches from the north.
As for the remaining weather details, a more typical, yet drier than normal, trade wind pattern can be expected today, with a few showers moving into windward and mauka areas. Localized sea breezes will also bring the potential for a few leeward and interior showers this afternoon. Rather dry trade wind weather will then prevail Friday night through late next week, with mainly windward and mauka showers and very little shower activity reaching leeward communities.

Aviation

A surface trough near Kauai moving slowly west will keep a few clouds and showers near Kauai this morning. Winds will remain light with local land/seabreezes today into tonight. Trade winds will gradually return today into tonight but remain light over the western islands. Clouds and showers will build in the afternoon over the interior portions of the islands and then shift to the windward and mountain areas as the trade winds fill in.
No AIRMETS are currently in effect, nor anticipated at this time.

Marine

Building moderate east to southeast winds will fill through the local waters today. High pressure north of the islands will track eastward and winds will back to a more typical trade wind direction out of the east by this evening. Moderate to locally fresh trades then continue into next week.
The latest guidance and trends at NDBC Buoy 51000 suggest that the surf has transitioned to a more northerly direction and will fall off rather quickly through the day for north facing shores.
A small long period southwest swell will build late today into the weekend maintaining small surf along south-facing shores. East facing shores will remain small until trades return this weekend, but as this northwesterly swell clocks more north, exposed shorelines on the east sides will see swell energy wrap through today.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov