UPDATE No. 2: Calvin continues churning over open ocean, still on track to move near or over Big Island

Update No. 2 at 5:30 p.m. July 15: Hurricane Calvin is still churning over open waters in the Eastern Pacific and again moving west-northwest as of 5 p.m. today, but at a slightly quicker speed of about 17 mph than earlier Saturday.

Not much else had changed since the last update from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Fla. The storm is still a Category 2 hurricane and forecast to weaken. It remains on a track that will bring it near or over the Big Island — possibly as a tropical storm — as early as Tuesday next week.

Calvin was 1,540 miles east-southeast of Hilo and 1,575 miles east-southeast of South Point on the Big Island; 1,610 miles east-southeast of Hāna, Maui; and 1,750 miles from Honolulu. The storm is about 1,529 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.

The tropical cyclone is still expected to move into the Central Pacific by early Monday.

Calvin continues to have maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, with hurricane-force winds extending up to 25 miles from its center and tropical storm-force winds up to 105 miles.

The storm’s west-northwestward motion also is expected to continue.

“Calvin is expected to be gradually weakening as it passes very close to, and possibly over, the islands from Tuesday night through Wednesday night, bringing the potential for locally strong winds, flooding rain and high surf,” the National Weather Service forecast office in Honolulu said in its Hawai’i area synopsis just before 4 p.m. Saturday. “Models remain in good agreement on Calvin’s track, but some questions remain as the system is still closer to Baja California than the Big Island.”

Weather officials continue to warn that swells generated by Calvin, which are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, are expected to begin reaching Hawai‘i early next week.

Update at 11:31 a.m. July 15: Not much has changed since early this morning as Hurricane Calvin, still a Category 2 storm, continued moving west over open waters as of 11 a.m. today.

The storm is expected to move into the Central Pacific by early Monday and also remains on a track that could include impacts to the Big Island as early as Tuesday next week.

Calvin is now located about 1,655 miles east-southeast of Hilo and 1,690 miles east-southeast of South Point on the Big Island; 1,725 miles east-southeast of Hāna, Maui; and 1,855 miles east-southeast of Honolulu. It still had maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, with hurricane-force winds extending up to 25 miles out from its center and tropical storm-force winds up to 105 miles out.

The storm also is still moving at 16 mph. Calvin is expected to continue in the same general direction and possibly at a slightly faster speed during the next few days, and weakening is forecast through early next week.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect at this time; however, swells generated by Calvin are still expected to begin reaching the Hawaiian Islands by early next week. Those swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Interests in Hawai‘i should continue to monitor the tropical cyclone’s progress.

Original story: Hurricane Calvin has weakened to a Category 2 storm as it continues to move west-northwest on a course that will bring it into the Central Pacific by sometime Monday morning and then toward the Hawaiian Islands — possibly impacting the Big Island as early as Tuesday.

With a well-established mid-level ridge over the Eastern Pacific, the storm is expected to continue its current west-northwestward motion and looks to be on track to come near or over the Big Island, possibly still as a tropical storm. Swells generated by Calvin are expected to begin reaching the Hawaiian Islands early next week and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

“Calvin is expected to be gradually weakening as it passes very close to, and possibly over, the islands from Tuesday night through Wednesday night, bringing the potential for locally strong wind gusts, flooding rain and high surf,” the National Weather Service forecast office said early Saturday morning.

However, there remains uncertainty in the track, so it is too early to determine the exact location and magnitude of any potential impacts from the storm.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Fla., advises people and other interests in Hawai’i should continue to monitor the situation for further updates.

As of 5 a.m. Saturday, the hurricane was moving at 16 mph and had maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, with hurricane-force winds extending up to 35 miles outward from Calvin’s center and tropical storm-force winds extending up to 125 miles.

The hurricane was 1,750 miles east-southeast of Hilo and 1,785 miles east-southeast of South Point on the Big Island; 1,820 miles east-southeast of Hāna, Maui; and 1,955 miles east-southeast of Honolulu.

A weakening trend that began overnight Friday is expected to continue for the next several days as the storm moves over cooler waters and into a drier and more stable environment. Southwesterly deep-layer wind shear also is forecast to increase as Calvin traverses the Central Pacific, which will affect the storm’s ability to sustain organized convection. To what extent is still uncertain.

Regardless of its status, Calvin does appear likely to maintain some tropical storm-force winds in the northern portion of its circulation during the next four days.

“Stay tuned for forecast updates as Calvin moves closer to Hawai’i over the next couple of days,” the National Weather Service said. “Otherwise, moderate to breezy trade winds will prevail, bringing limited showers to windward areas during nights and mornings.”

Although the storm is expected to continue weakening before reaching the state, Hawai‘i’s emergency managers urge members of the public to make plans and take steps to reduce Calvin’s possible impacts on people and property.

“We’re still hopeful that Calvin won’t cause any major problems, but after three quiet hurricane seasons we don’t want people to be complacent about this hazard,” said Hawai‘i Emergency Management Agency Administrator James Barros. “Even if it weakens as expected, the storm still poses potential threats from heavy rain, high wind and coastal waves and rip currents. Don’t be caught unprepared.”

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center forecast a slightly above-normal hurricane season, which runs June 1 through Nov. 30, with four to seven storms moving through the area, which includes Hawai‘i. The 2020, 2021 and 2022 hurricane seasons saw below normal tropical cyclone activity.

“We all need to shake off the rust from those slow seasons to be sure we’re prepared for a hurricane,” Barros said. “We’re not sure what Calvin will bring, but it’s still a great reminder of what we need to do to get ready.”

The Hawai‘i Emergency Management Agency will work with its partners through the weekend to review updated forecasts about the incoming storm and provide additional information as needed.