Photo Credit: Braden Jarvis

West Kaua’i

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to around 66 above 3000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 59 near the shore to around 48 above 3000 feet. South winds around 10 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to around 66 above 3000 feet. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Kaua’i

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 77. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 55 to 60. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs around 77. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Kaua’i Mountains

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 65 to 73 in the valleys to around 60 above 4000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 48 to 53 in the valleys to around 42 above 4000 feet. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 65 to 73 in the valleys to around 60 above 4000 feet. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Kaua’i

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 70 to 77. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 51 to 60. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southwest after midnight.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 77. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Kaua’i

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 70 to 77. South winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 49 to 61. Southwest winds around 10 mph.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs 70 to 77. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light winds with limited showers will continue through tonight. South to southwest winds will pick up Sunday and Monday for Kauai and Oahu as a system tracks by the islands. A front will move over the islands Tuesday night and Wednesday with an expected increase in showers.

Discussion

Infrared satellite early this morning shows a band of midlevel clouds over the western and central portion of Hawaii associated with a jet stream. The Big Island summits are picking up the strong winds aloft with peak gusts reaching over 75 mph. A High Wind Warning is in place for the summits through the weekend. Meanwhile, light and variable winds at the surface due to a surface ridge over the area will allow land breezes to develop today and tonight. Expect relatively cool and dry conditions with little precipitation forecast through tonight.
A low passing north of the area will push the ridge south Sunday and Monday, allowing southwest flow to return over Kauai and Oahu. Expect an increase in low clouds and showers within this flow by as moisture levels increase, particularly for Kauai and the Big Island. This system will track northeast away from the state Tuesday. Another, stronger low will develop to the west of the state on Tuesday and drag a front over the west and central part of the state Tuesday night and Wednesday and bring an increase in showers. Winds will again become light and variable as the front dissipates over the islands. Yet another low pressure system will pass just north of the islands Thursday into Friday.

Aviation

A high pressure ridge over the Hawaiian Islands will keep light and variable winds in the forecast for most airfields with fairly dry conditions into Sunday. An upper level jet stream will produce a band of middle and high level cloud cover today. These layered clouds above the freezing level will produce periods of moderate rime icing in cloud through the morning hours. Also stronger winds aloft will produce moderate turbulence in the middle levels. AIRMET's Tango for moderate turbulence and Zulu for moderate rime icing remain in effect for a portion of the region through the morning hours.

Marine

Light and variable winds will continue through tonight as a ridge remains over the state. The gale that brought the rough conditions and westerly winds through the area earlier this week will continue to lift northeastward and away from the region. A compact low developing around Midway overnight will follow it on a northeast track through the weekend. Although its attendant front is expected to hang up north of the area Sunday, moderate to locally fresh southwest winds developing out ahead of it appear likely over the Kauai and Oahu waters beginning late Saturday night and continuing into Sunday night. A brief period with light southwest winds will follow late Sunday night into Monday before the southerlies ramp up again Monday night through early Wednesday as a second low passes to the northwest on a similar track. The front associated with this second feature may reach the western end of the state by Wednesday.
Surf along north and west facing shores will steadily ease over the weekend as a north-northwest swell moving through begins to move out. Observations at the offshore buoys to the northwest reflect this trend with the swell energy peak now centered around the 11 second band. Guidance lines up well with the current pattern and depicts well below normal conditions next week with mainly small background northwest and northeast energy moving through exposed shores.
Surf along east facing shores will remain small through next week due to the lack of trades locally and upstream across the eastern Pacific. Only the wrap from the current north-northwest swell moving through or from a small north-northeast swell expected Sunday into early next week are expected to generate surf for easterly exposures. Early morning PacIOOS buoy observations at Mokapu and Kaneohe reflect this northerly energy wrapping down the coast this morning with a swell height hanging in the 4 to 5 ft range centered around the 10 to 12 second band.
Surf along south facing shores will remain small with a mix of some background southerly pulses moving through and some short period chop due to the periods of moderate southwest winds anticipated Sunday and again Tuesday into Wednesday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Wind Warning until 6 PM HST Sunday for Big Island Summits.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov